Venezuela is in danger of losing its membership in South America's trade bloc, Mercosur. On Sept. 13, Uruguayan Foreign Minister Rodolfo Nin Novoa said Mercosur had set a December deadline for Venezuela to meet its requirements. Caracas blew past its last compliance deadline in August, but because the consensus-based bloc could not reach a unanimous decision to expel Venezuela, the country faced few consequences for failing to adhere to Mercosur standards.
But this time Venezuela might not have it so easy. Until last month, only one full member of the bloc opposed rescinding Venezuela's membership status: Uruguay. Because every full Mercosur member has veto power over the expulsion of its peers, Uruguay's support protected Venezuela from Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, all of which have been clamoring for Caracas' ouster. These nations argue that Venezuela does not adhere to the bloc's trade and human rights regulations, including allowing the free movement of Mercosur citizens. Caracas also has yet to approve around 300 bloc rules and over 30 international treaties to which Mercosur belongs.
Uruguay similarly stood behind Venezuela in an August spat over whether Caracas should be permitted to hold the bloc's temporary presidency. Venezuela was supposed to assume the role for six months, per Mercosur's regular rotation, but Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay advocated passing Venezuela over. Caracas has since declared that it is acting as the bloc's president, and Uruguay has argued in favor of letting it take the post, throwing the position into a kind of limbo in which no single member and all members at once occupy it.
That Uruguay's foreign minister was the one to announce Venezuela's new deadline is telling. Should Uruguay's patience for Venezuela's insubordinate behavior run out, little will be left to shield Caracas from the punitive measures called for by Mercosur's other members. And considering the widening political divides between Venezuela and its neighbors, they are unlikely to soften their positions toward Caracas in the near future. When Venezuela was admitted to the bloc in 2012, most of Mercosur's other members were ruled by left-leaning governments that viewed Caracas as a like-minded ally. Since then, however, the rise of new market-friendly administrations in Argentina and Brazil — Mercosur's two largest economies — has left Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro increasingly isolated within the bloc. If Caracas does not change its tune, and fast, it soon may not have any allies left to defend its place in Mercosur.
