Just days after the United States and Russia established a cease-fire agreement in Syria, a similar agreement appears to be taking shape in another theater of the standoff between Moscow and the West. On Tuesday, the leaders of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic announced that they would implement a unilateral cease-fire at midnight Sept. 15, urging Ukrainian forces to observe the truce as well. The announcement marks the first time the Russian-backed separatists have initiated a cease-fire in the yearslong conflict in Ukraine. Though the proposed cease-fire is only a first step toward peace in Ukraine — and a tentative one at that — it represents progress for the United States and Russia.
Moscow and Washington have reached a crucial point in their negotiations over Syria and Ukraine, two of the most contentious areas of their dispute. With only four months left in U.S. President Barack Obama's final term in office, time is running short for the two rivals to make headway on either front before having to start fresh with a new administration. Although the cease-fire in Syria has only just begun and the one in Ukraine has yet to start, they are nonetheless evidence of a concerted diplomatic effort by Moscow and Washington to reach an understanding sooner than later. After all, both sides stand to gain from making meaningful progress in the conflicts before Obama leaves office. As the clock runs down on his presidency, Obama has his legacy to think about. Russia, meanwhile, has an interest in dealing with the "devil it knows" before an unfamiliar negotiating partner assumes power in Washington.
Still, there is no guarantee that Russia and the United States will make a breakthrough on either issue. Several factors will complicate their plans to end the daily fighting in Syria and Ukraine — much less to reach a lasting solution to the conflicts there. Though its agenda in Syria may be largely aligned with Russia's for now, the United States will have a hard time isolating the rebel groups it proposes to target jointly with Moscow. Turkey will stay focused on limiting Kurdish expansion and will use the cease-fire in Syria as an opportunity to fortify the rebel groups it supports. Unnerved by a U.S.-Russian alignment on Syria that favors Iran, Saudi Arabia will also try to strengthen rebel factions it backs. Iran and Syria, moreover, are unlikely to agree to a power-sharing arrangement.
Similarly, in Ukraine, a cease-fire is simply the first of many steps toward honoring the Minsk accords. In past cease-fires, the separatists have observed some requirements of the Minsk protocols, for instance by withdrawing heavy weaponry. But Moscow has never fully removed its military forces and restored control of the border between Russia and the separatist regions to Ukraine, in accordance with the agreement. Furthermore, when previous cease-fires have crumbled and fighting in eastern Ukraine has resumed, the separatists, without fail, have returned their heavy weaponry to the line of contact.
Beyond security, there are also major political obstacles standing in the way of a peace agreement. Russia and Ukraine have reached an impasse over the status of the separatist territories. Moscow and the separatists insist that Kiev must grant greater autonomy to Donbas to end the fighting, while Ukraine refuses to grant any political concessions before the security components of the Minsk accords have been implemented. Kiev has also insisted that it will not recognize any elections in the breakaway territories unless monitors from Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe are there to observe them. The separatist leadership, however, has announced that it will hold primary elections in early October without Kiev's consent.
Given the many unresolved differences between both sides of the Ukraine conflict, it is hard to imagine that a breakthrough agreement will emerge in the next few months, regardless of Washington and Moscow's intentions. In fact, the cease-fire announcement may have been little more than an effort by Moscow and the rebels to appear cooperative so that they can blame Ukraine if the truce falls apart. Russia could use this to try to weaken the West's support for Kiev, particularly as the next EU vote on the future of Russian sanctions, due in early 2017, approaches.
Though they will almost certainly fall short of reaching comprehensive peace settlements in Syria or Ukraine, the United States and Russia are trying to make the most of the waning days of the Obama administration. And their efforts have not been in vain. After all, a cease-fire is a small but necessary step toward ending either conflict.
