The election comes at a critical time for Hong Kong. The city has thrived on its status as a global financial center with a vibrant civil society, open business culture and strong rule of law. But its status is somewhat undermined by an increasingly polarized political system wracked by protests, campaigns and contentious discourse. At the same time, the city's future economic prospects are not as bright as they once were.

To be sure, Hong Kong still has a vibrant economy and civil society, but the ramifications of the tense political cycle in 2014 are still being felt. And public fears of domination by the mainland — which culminated in Beijing's 2014 electoral reform bill — have not subsided. Instead, uneasiness over Beijing's perceived interference has only increased, helped along by the detention of Hong Kong-based booksellers and the central government's successful attempt to pressure the Hong Kong government to disqualify six pro-independence candidates before the election. Inside Hong Kong, divisions over exactly how to interact with the mainland have transformed the social and political landscape, fueling the rise of radical nativist movements that advocate independence. This all takes place against the backdrop of fragile growth caused by the mainland's slowdown, rising inequality, mounting property prices and high youth unemployment. The situation in the city makes these legislative elections uniquely important. 

The new Legislative Council will need to decide on a number of issues. Critically, the outcome of the legislative election will likely determine Beijing's ability to push forward some of the contentious proposals on future electoral reform of both the chief executive and legislature. How these reforms play out will, in part, determine how Beijing will implement its promise of universal suffrage and political autonomy for Hong Kong. By extension, they will be a practical test of the "One Country Two Systems" model. For its part, Beijing has growing concerns over city-state's centripetal tendencies and is less inclined than ever to offer political concessions.

The city's current legislative system is dictated by the 1997 Hong Kong Basic Law. Although this is subject to other legislative conditions, key proposals, such as electoral reform, require a two-thirds majority in the Legislative Council. The current legislature was elected in 2012 and is divided into two traditional political camps. The first is pro-Beijing and holds 43 seats — less than the two thirds needed to pass laws. The opposing "Pan-Democracy Camp" occupies the remaining 27 seats. Pan-Democracy lawmakers have been able to use their votes to block important legislative proposals, including two major infrastructure projects that would have connected Hong Kong to the mainland. Most notably, Beijing-backed reform proposals on the 2017 election of the chief executive failed in mid 2015 largely because many pro-Beijing lawmakers abstained. Some speculate that this may have been deliberate on the part of the mainland: With Beijing's favored reforms doomed to fail, it stuck to the status quo as a better option.

The central government hopes that the pro-Beijing camp will reach the two-thirds majority needed to pass reforms without issue. Although it is impossible to predict the result of such a hotly contested election, some polls show the outcome tipped slightly in favor of the pro-Beijing camp. This may be due to the growing fragmentation within the opposition and the rise of nativist parties. Nonetheless, as with all elections, voter sentiment may change at the last moment.

Failure to secure a majority may be a blow to Beijing and may also encourage the central government to further delay reforms. The central government's greatest fear, however, is of the growing nativist movement. These forces have garnered strong public support in their campaign for self-determination and independence, particularly among the youth. And they are seeking to parlay this grassroots organizing power into legislative seats. According to some estimates, at least 15 out of the 289 candidates branded themselves as advocates of some form of self-determination. Whether or not these candidates win their races — or continue their nativist rhetoric while in office — their appeal bodes ill for Beijing and points to future challenges as the new generation of Hong Kong comes of age.

Unless the election gives way to another round of political crises, Beijing will likely refrain from further interference in the outcome. The results of the race, however, will have significant implications for the future political and economic status of Hong Kong — and will impact Beijing's calculations accordingly. The past two years of tension in Hong Kong, after all, have made a mockery of Beijing's promises of full political autonomy for the city state, a more democratic political system on the mainland and peaceful reunification with Taiwan. All of these goals now seem increasingly remote.