After a string of recent successes, SpaceX has encountered a significant setback. An explosion occurred Sept. 1 on the launch pad at Florida's Cape Canaveral Air Force Station during a routine static test-fire of the nine Merlin 1D rocket engines that power the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket's first stage. Details of the accident are scarce, but it will delay the company's launch of an Israeli satellite that was scheduled for Sept. 3.
The incident marks SpaceX's second major failure since early 2015. The first took place in June 2015, when the second stage of a rocket carrying supplies to the International Space Station failed, grounding the company's launches for nearly six months. The latest explosion will likely have similar consequences for SpaceX, casting doubt on its ambition to complete as many as 10 more launches by the end of the year. (The company has launched eight rockets in 2016.)
SpaceX's rise has had an important impact on the global space industry. Should the company succeed, spaceflight development in the private sector would have the potential to reduce costs and increase the frequency of launches, providing cheaper access to space for companies and countries alike. But to become a reliable launch provider, SpaceX cannot experience frequent failures. The Falcon 9 rocket's main U.S. competitor, the Boeing and Lockheed Martin Atlas V, has never failed to insert a payload into orbit.
Moreover, the loss of expensive payloads, such as satellites, can be a considerable and costly setback for a launch provider's customers. Earlier this year, SpaceX won its first military launch contract from the U.S. Department of Defense. (Historically, the Pentagon has relied almost exclusively on United Launch Alliance, and the Department of Defense noted in August that its heaviest satellites still can be carried only by those rockets.) SpaceX had hoped to prove in 2017 that its Falcon Heavy rocket — essentially three Falcon 9 rockets strapped together — is the most powerful rocket ever made. The Florida explosion could keep the company from meeting that deadline.
Today's failure, and any that may happen in the future, could also complicate SpaceX's plans to conduct its first manned spaceflight by the end of next year. In November 2015, NASA awarded the company a contract to ferry astronauts to the International Space Station, and company founder and CEO Elon Musk had hoped to unveil the details of future manned missions to Mars later this month. But even if the Sept. 1 explosion pushes those timelines back, it is unlikely to derail them. Spaceflight is inherently dangerous; though SpaceX and its competitors can try to mitigate that danger, more accidents are inevitable.
It is also important to remember that the recent setback follows eight fruitful months for the company. After completing the first successful landing of the rocket's reusable first stage in December 2015, SpaceX has gone on to replicate its victory five times this year. At this point, the company has performed more successful landings than failed ones, and earlier this week, it found a customer willing to allow its satellite to be used as a payload on a rocket whose first stage had been used before. (This launch, however, was originally set for the fourth quarter of 2016 and could be postponed by the Sept. 1 accident.)
As the space industry grows and access to space spreads, competition and cooperation within the sector will increase. Until a decade ago, space was largely controlled by a handful of countries, including the United States, China and Russia. But that is quickly changing, and private companies like SpaceX — regardless of their failures — are an integral part of that evolution.
