The Philippine government and the political wing of the communist rebels, the National Democratic Front, signed a joint declaration Aug. 26 to indefinitely extend a cease-fire to facilitate peace talks. The cease-fire extends a seven-day limited cease-fire that was issued by the communist side before the talks and could pave the way for future discussions as both sides enter into the next round of negotiations, currently set for Oct. 8-12. The peace talks aim to end the world's longest-running communist insurgency. The conflict has left 40,000 people dead, more than 3,000 of whom were killed in the past eight years.
The weeklong talks in Norway led to some initial agreement, including a recommendation to give amnesty to political prisoners (subject to Congressional approval), an acceleration of the peace negotiations, and the reaffirmation of a previous agreement. Ideally, it could be followed by discussions for a permanent joint cease-fire arrangement between the two sides. The government expressed hopes that the negotiations could lead to a permanent peace agreement within a year, but the communist rebels stopped short of setting a deadline.
Since taking power in late June, newly elected Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has made addressing the rural-based communist insurgency and the threat posed by Moro Muslim rebel groups in the country's resource-rich south his key priority. The goal, unattainable for Duterte's predecessors, points to the country's imperative of securing its territorial integrity and solidifying economic development in the underdeveloped countryside and southern region. An extended cease-fire with the communists would help Duterte in his overall bid for peace. His personal ties with some communist leaders and his relatively accommodating approach leading up the negotiation also helped build momentum for the peace process this time around.
But the key question is how long the cease-fire will hold. Some earlier cease-fires proved to be tenuous and repeatedly failed. In late July, Duterte declared a unilateral cease-fire with the communists in his first State of the Nation Address, but it was soon threatened by an attack by communist rebel group New People's Army in Davao del Norte that left one government militiaman dead. This bilateral cease-fire between Manila and the communists shows some progress, but both sides will have to maintain momentum to avoid another breach; a violation of the cease-fire could threaten Duterte's credibility and make the peace talks even more problematic politically. Meanwhile, the actual demands of the communist forces remain unclear, beyond the request of releasing all political prisoners and many broad campaigns intended to overthrow the government and expel Western interests from the Philippines.
It will be important to keep an eye on the actual peace terms that each side puts forth because they will indicate how likely it is that a deal is struck. While the cease-fire is welcome progress to leaders within the communist force, its many divisions could make the group unable to actually maintain a cease-fire. At the lower levels, the group has basically evolved into an organized crime syndicate, and future attacks by dissident factions cannot be ruled out.
