Turkey has announced the start of Operation Euphrates Shield, an offensive led by Syrian rebels to retake territory on the Syria-Turkey border from the Islamic State. The most important target of the operation is the town of Jarabulus, the last major Islamic State stronghold in the border region. With artillery and airstrikes, Turkey launched a concerted bombardment on nearly 100 Islamic State targets Aug. 24, clearing a path for the rebels to begin their attack on Jarabulus. After several hours of light fighting as the Islamic State retreated, the rebels succeeded in recapturing the town.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that the operation's objective is to halt attacks on Turkish territory conducted from Syria. But the timing of the offensive — just after the Syrian Democratic Forces captured Manbij — suggests that it is also linked to Ankara's concerns about the advance of Kurdish units embedded within the group. Ankara likely hopes that a Turkish-backed rebel assault will both eliminate the Islamic State threat looming on its border and impede any further encroachment by the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern Aleppo.
The rebels have been gathering in the Turkish town of Karkamis, just across the border from Jarabulus, for the past few days. Numbering around 1,500, the fighters largely belong to the Jabhat al-Shamiya, Sultan Murad, Turkmen Martyrs Battalion, Nour al-Din al-Zinki and Faylaq al-Sham units. Now that their immediate goal of seizing Jarabulus has been realized, they will begin pushing westward along the border, aiming to eventually link up with the rebel-held town of al-Rai.
Beyond Jarabulus and the Syria-Turkey border, the last prize left in northern Aleppo province is the Islamic State-controlled city of al-Bab. The city is currently sandwiched between Turkish-backed rebels, the Syrian Democratic Forces and loyalist troops. For the Islamic State fighters in the region, who are surrounded on all sides, it is only a matter of time before al-Bab falls, though it is still unclear whom the city will fall to. Al-Bab is paramount to the Syrian Democratic Forces' plan to link up with Afrin canton, but the Turkish-backed rebels will undoubtedly try to get there first to halt the Kurdish fighters' expansion.
In an effort to take on a greater role in the Syrian conflict, Turkey has sought to improve its ties with Russia and Iran. The former is particularly important, considering that Russia's troops have used the threat of military action to block Turkish aircraft from flying over Syria before. As Turkey sends its forces directly into Syria — even if only to support the rebels — it will be careful to ensure that doing so does not lead to clashes with Russia.
Turkey, meanwhile, is also working closely with the United States. U.S. air support bolstered the Jarabulus operation, but Ankara is more interested in securing Washington's help as a precaution, should a confrontation occur between Turkish troops and loyalist or Russian forces. The United States is also in a position to pressure the Syrian Democratic Forces not to push deeper into Aleppo, of which Turkey will be eager to take advantage.
