A milestone in Venezuela's monthslong standoff between the government and the political opposition approaches this week. Tuesday is the deadline for the National Electoral Council (CNE) to issue its ruling on whether a proposed recall referendum against the president can proceed. Approval by the CNE would allow the opposition to begin collecting signatures in support of the proposal — a necessary preliminary step before holding a nationwide recall referendum.
Venezuela's Constitution guarantees the electorate the right to recall elected officials, including the president. Under regular political and economic conditions, a referendum would not necessarily threaten the government. After all, securing public approval through political patronage was a key tactic of previous United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) governments. But given Venezuela's current socio-economic and political crises, the recall referendum has taken on added importance for the administration of President Nicolas Maduro and the government as a whole.
The leadership in Caracas is in a challenging position. Resisting public and opposition calls to advance the referendum request through the steps mandated by electoral regulations would be far easier if the recall were being pursued by a small or fringe political faction. Widespread dissatisfaction with the country's economy, however, makes the referendum a real threat to the government. A sizable segment of the population appears to support a referendum request. So far, the opposition's disunity and weakness compared with the ruling PSUV have limited its ability to mobilize voters to support a prompt referendum. But widespread unrest is changing that dynamic. The severe, sharp decline in Venezuelans' standards of living over the past several years has fueled national unrest. Daily demonstrations have not coalesced into more dangerous protests, largely because the frequent gatherings are small and lack any overarching political unity. But given the severity of the economic downturn, a larger outbreak of protests is a key concern for the government.
But some of the issues on Venezuelan politicians' minds go far beyond the immediate referendum request and unrest. The president has about three years left in his term, and his re-election campaign (and those of other party officeholders) are now tainted by the perception that the ruling party is responsible for the crisis. Given the lack of economic options available and the looming threat of financial default, the party faces the risk of a major defeat at the polls in 2019. Some former and current PSUV members advocate holding a recall referendum as soon as possible, if only because a change of leadership could deflect public anger away from the party. Even if Maduro avoids a recall referendum, the issue of presidential succession and how best to approach the 2019 election while burdened by reduced public approval will influence actions by the PSUV and how the political elites within it relate to one another. Further divisions within the party are likely to appear, leaving the country with a fragmented political landscape.
The actions of the CNE this week will play some small part in determining the timing of this political evolution. Even if the CNE approves the next stage of the referendum process, and the opposition collects the signatures of 20 percent of the electorate needed to advance the process, there is still significant resistance from within the government to quickly holding a referendum. Consequently, any vote on the president's tenure could be delayed into next year, when the vice president would be constitutionally obligated to take up the presidency. (If the president's removal occurred before January 2017, a new election would be held.) Regardless of the daily confrontation in Venezuelan politics, the country's political and economic instability is here to stay, and the referendum process is a small part of that story.
