Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has granted sweeping political powers to Defense Minister Gen. Vladimir Padrino Lopez. In a public announcement on July 11, the president said that all government ministries would be subordinated to the defense minister and the president and that Padrino Lopez would be charged with a government initiative to improve food supply throughout the country. The president also gave the defense minister the power to make decisions at the municipal, regional and business levels.
If Padrino Lopez begins openly dictating domestic policy as a result of the president's announcement, it will officially put him in the position of being a parallel president. That the defense minister is able to craft domestic policies is not an anomaly. The Venezuelan armed forces have wielded significant political influence for more than a decade. Former President Hugo Chavez rewarded the loyalty of the armed forces during the 2002 coup attempt against him by appointing military leaders to key political positions. That trend continued under Maduro, who at the time of Chavez's death lacked the political authority to decisively produce domestic policy in the same manner as his predecessor.
The choice to give the defense minister broad governmental authority clearly changes the official balance of power within Maduro's administration. At a minimum, the military faction represented by Padrino Lopez now has the president's permission to create policy, even though its decisions could go directly against the president's best interests. Venezuela faces a socio-economic crisis characterized by rising social unrest, growing demand for a recall referendum against the president, a potential default on foreign debt and widening political splits within the ranks of the ruling party. The president is increasingly at the mercy of a political elite that faces the daunting task of formulating a strategy for the continued survival of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) ahead of the 2019 presidential election. And the 2015 legislative elections have showed that the deepening economic crisis can hurt the PSUV at the voting booth.
With three years left until the next presidential vote, the PSUV elite is likely trying to decide whether to transition away from Maduro, either by forcing his resignation or by orchestrating a recall referendum, so as to preserve party unity ahead of the next election. Placing the defense minister in a position of such authority could make the idea of a change in government less appealing to the country's politicians and armed forces in the coming months. However, officially granting the defense minister so much more influence over the direct administration of government could make it more difficult for the president and his immediate allies to resist a recall referendum, should the defense minister and other military leaders choose to support it.
The next few months will be crucial in determining the political and economic direction Venezuela will take. If there is a recall referendum, it is still unclear whether it would be held this year or next. Should the president be recalled in 2016, new elections will be held. If, however, a recall does not occur until 2017, the vice president will succeed Maduro and hold office until 2019. So far, the government has delayed the referendum to the point that a recall in the remainder of the year appears less and less likely, but the timetable for holding a referendum will probably change if unrest significantly increases.
