Throughout the conflict in Ukraine, tanks have been a common sight, even after the withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the line of contact in February 2015. But since then, only small numbers of tanks have operated close to the demarcation line. Local media and observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe sometimes publish accounts of military vehicles in the area, but never as many as 30, which constitutes nearly an entire armored battalion. The massing of tanks at the scale described in Donbas is unusual and, if true, indicates that military action could be expected in that sector of the demarcation line.
From a military perspective, such a large number of tanks suggests that offensive operations may be planned. Several other reports from the Ukrainian military detailing deployments of artillery systems, including Grad multiple rocket launchers, to the same area substantiate this possibility. At this point, however, the reliability of these statements is unclear. The Ukrainian military often makes such claims — though typically about smaller deployments — and independent sources confirm them only occasionally.
The Ukrainian military also alleged that the tanks were deployed in preparation for an offensive to take place on the night of June 15, but no reports of emerging military campaigns in the region have surfaced. Although Avdiivka has been the site of artillery fire and skirmishes in the past few days, the involvement of a full armored battalion would likely bring more extensive fighting. Furthermore, such an operation would be out of character for Russia, which has refrained from launching any major offensives in Donbas in the past year. Moscow has even made some conciliatory gestures recently. In late May, Russia released detained Ukrainian fighter pilot Nadiya Savchenko in a bid to advance negotiations with Ukraine and the West and persuade the European Union to ease its sanctions.
On the other hand, Avdiivka is a strategic location. It is the site of an important coking plant that would afford the rebels logistical and economic advantages. An attempt on Moscow's part to seize it cannot be entirely ruled out.
Short of a full-blown offensive operation in Avdiivka, other developments could herald the start of a planned campaign. These include additional concentrations of military forces near Avdiivka or elsewhere along the demarcation line, heightened intelligence gathering, intensive artillery preparations and forward deployment of logistical support. A change in intelligence-gathering activities would probably be noticeable if, for instance, drone flyovers or patrols increased in frequency or intensity. Given the regular shelling already going on in the area, however, artillery preparation could be more difficult to distinguish. Based on Russian military doctrine and the reports of equipment deployed nearby, Grad artillery rockets may appear in the area ahead of any movement on the ground. Off the battlefield, any uptick in diplomatic activity among Ukraine, the West and Russia could signal more serious action to come.
