The most significant of the June 5 votes took place in Rome, Italy's capital and most populous city. There, Five Star Movement candidate Virginia Raggi finished well ahead of her center-left competitor. The center-right also performed poorly after failing to agree on a common candidate. Now, Raggi, a candidate with little experience in politics who was unknown to most Italians only a few months ago, has a chance to become Rome's first female mayor. Her prominence in the polls reflects the success of the Five Star Movement's strategy of criticizing Italy's traditional political elite while selecting candidates without much background in politics.
Though Raggi's strong showing sends a message to Italy's mainstream parties, it also poses a substantial risk to the Five Star Movement. Rome faces a number of tough challenges, including a failing transportation system and widespread corruption. (The city's two previous mayors became embroiled in corruption scandals.) If Raggi were to win the runoff on June 19, her party would gain visibility and resources by controlling the city. But if she administers Rome poorly, the Five Star Movement's popularity could be undermined.
Unlike some of Europe's other anti-establishment parties, the Five Star Movement lacks a clear ideology. Instead, it has largely focused on criticizing Italy's entrenched political elite. And amid a stagnating economy, rising unemployment and growing disenchantment with the political mainstream, this strategy has been fairly effective; in 2013, the Five Star Movement became the party most voted for in general elections. But the organization's eclectic composition and vague platform created problems for it in the Italian Parliament, as some lawmakers abandoned the party and others simply refused to toe the party line in votes.
The Five Star Movement's approval ratings fell in the months after the general elections, giving the Democratic Party a temporary boost as Renzi took office in early 2014. Recent opinion polls, however, show that the gap between the two is closing once again. The Five Star Movement holds about 28 to 30 percent of the public's support, while the Democratic Party is at around 30 to 32 percent. This development does not bode well for the prime minister, whose popularity will play a key role in the outcome of Italy's October referendum, in which Italians will vote on reforms to the composition and powers of Parliament. Though Renzi said June 6 that the municipal elections have nothing to do with the referendum, he admitted that the results were disappointing for his party.
Renzi has vowed to resign from politics if the parliamentary reforms fail. Although the prime minister can change his mind, a "no" vote would significantly weaken his authority and could trigger early elections. This would, in turn, kick off a new phase of political uncertainty in the eurozone's third-largest economy and open the door to renewed anti-EU rhetoric. After all, both the Five Star Movement and Italy's main conservative, right-wing parties — including former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia and the anti-immigration Northern League — are critical of the union. Considering that Italy is still struggling to grow its economy and create jobs amid persistent doubts over the strength of its banks, the country can little afford yet another period of instability.
