The negotiations between Russia and the United States over the crisis in Ukraine produced significant developments this week. On May 18, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland traveled to Moscow, where she met with Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov. As with past conferences between the two, the latest meeting has provoked speculation that Moscow and Washington may be inching closer to resolving their standoff.
Political analyst Alexey Chesnakov, a former Kremlin official reported to have inside knowledge of the meetings, called Nuland's ideas for implementing the Minsk agreement "controversial but interesting." Implementation has been a major sticking point throughout the negotiation process. Ukraine and its Western partners have blamed Russia for failing to honor the deal's military and security terms. Russia, meanwhile, maintains that Ukraine has not done enough on the political end. In the meeting between Nuland and Surkov, Chesnakov said, the United States showed more interest and flexibility in finding a resolution than the Ukrainians have demonstrated.
If his reports prove to be true, the United States may now be willing to deviate somewhat from its strategy. So far, Washington has echoed Ukraine's demands, insisting that Moscow fully abide by the agreement's terms — by removing all troops, for example — as a condition to receiving political concessions for the separatists. Neither Washington nor Moscow, however, has confirmed Chesnakov's statements.
In addition to Nuland's Moscow visit, reports surfaced this week that the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) might send an armed police mission to the breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk in the event of local elections there. Given the dispute between Kiev and the separatists over the nature and timing of the elections, this would be a notable development. But the separatists quickly denounced an OSCE presence: Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, warned that his forces would shoot any armed OSCE personnel to enter Donetsk.
Zakharchenko's reaction, along with both separatist and Ukrainian forces' failure to observe a cease-fire agreement, suggests that any major resolution to the conflict remains a long way off. Still, the talks between the United States and Russia — which have occurred with increasing frequency recently — indicate that compromise may be possible. Even as it exerts military pressure on Ukraine and maneuvers to divide EU member countries on the future of sanctions against Russia, Moscow may be willing to concede on some of the agreement's security conditions. In the meantime, the negotiations will proceed.
