The CICIG, which was implemented in 2007, is part of an effort to establish effective judicial institutions in Guatemala. The body is legally empowered to collaborate with the country's prosecutors to investigate criminal activity related to corruption. Guatemala and neighboring Honduras and El Salvador are part of Central America's Northern Triangle, an area known for historically weak institutions and rule of law. High crime in the region, coupled with a largely ineffective legal system, pose problems for the United States because local authorities cannot efficiently address specific U.S. security concerns. Among them are ongoing illegal migration and drug trafficking from Central America to the United States. In an attempt to solve — or at least to alleviate — these intractable long-term issues, the United States has tried to build more robust judicial and law enforcement institutions in the region.

Thanks to its political clout in Central America, the United States enjoys significant leeway to enact policies that will address its concerns there. Throughout the Northern Triangle, corruption pervades government and private transactions. As U.S. support for anti-corruption initiatives such as the CICIG has grown over the past decade, elites involved in illicit activities have faced a greater risk of arrest and prosecution. With the United States' backing, the CICIG and Guatemala's public prosecutor dug into Perez Molina's involvement in alleged corruption schemes. Wiretaps authorized for the investigation resulted in arrests in February of some individuals at Guatemalan steel manufacturer Aceros de Guatemala on charges of tax evasion, which could eventually lead to asset seizures.

Consequently, the evolution of the latest investigation has spurred anxieties among Guatemala's elite about the focus of Washington's anti-corruption initiative. Continued investigations could yield more indictments, which, in turn, could strain political relations with the United States. Furthermore, worry over what the investigations might reveal is not the only factor engendering distaste. Although it is a foreign-sponsored investigative body, the CICIG influences Guatemala's domestic policy. Some officials therefore regarded the pressure to renew the commission's mandate as unacceptable foreign involvement in the country's affairs. Nonetheless, people in Guatemala's government and its private sector have little political or legal recourse to resist.

Even if the country's political elite were to reach a consensus on how to express their displeasure with the investigations, the United States would have the upper hand: It is Guatemala's largest export market. Moreover, Guatemala relies on U.S. economic assistance, leaving the elite with few options to oppose more investigations. Indeed, renewing the CICIG's mandate was a condition for receiving $127 million in aid promised to the country this year through the U.S.-funded Northern Triangle Plan for Prosperity initiative. In total, the plan will disburse $750 million to Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador in 2016 for judicial and security reforms. Even so, the Guatemalan government could choose to exhibit its dissent with the United States politically, perhaps by withdrawing its ambassador.

But although the investigations in Guatemala may drive political disagreement between the country's government and the United States, political elites elsewhere in Latin America will probably remain safe from scrutiny by an investigative body like the CICIG, at least for now. Installing such commissions in neighboring states would be a challenge. To do so would likely require approval by lawmakers, something a government opposed to a commission would be loath to give. Even if domestic political groups were to advocate similar commissions in states such as El Salvador or Mexico, the initiative would need considerable support from the nations' congressional blocs. Without that support — likely difficult for a foreign-sponsored body to obtain — it would be virtually impossible for similar ventures to take root. And since Perez Molina resigned in Guatemala, securing government approval in other Latin American nations has likely become more elusive.