These are troubled times for Austrian politicians. Last year, hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers crossed the country on their way to northern Europe, and some 90,000 requested asylum in Austria. In response, the government in Vienna unilaterally reintroduced border controls and urged countries along the Balkan migration route to do the same, creating tension with the European Commission and Germany. At the same time, the migrant crisis has also given rise to domestic problems. In the fallout, mainstream political parties have lost support to independent candidates and anti-establishment parties, most notably the nationalist Freedom Party of Austria (FPO). Although some members of the SPO wanted the government to cooperate with the FPO in toughening migrant regulations and focusing on security issues, Faymann opposed the policies.
Political Fallout
Popular discontent with Austria's traditional parties became apparent in April when, for the first time in six decades, both the SPO and OVP failed to reach the second round of the presidential election. Meanwhile, Norbert Hofer of the FPO obtained 35 percent of the vote and is now neck and neck with the Green Party's former leader, Alexander Van der Bellen, in the race for Austria's presidency.
In light of these factors, the May 22 runoff election could be key for Austria's political future. Though the office is mostly ceremonial in Austria, the country's constitution allows presidents to veto laws, dissolve parliament and call new elections. Hofer has said that if elected, he would seek a more active role in Austrian politics; he has even threatened to dissolve parliament, which would be an unprecedented move. Austria does not have to hold elections until 2018, but an early vote would likely benefit the FPO. Recent opinion polls put support for the nationalists at around 34 percent, while the OVP holds a distant second place with 22 percent and the SPO has around 21 percent. As a result, the ruling coalition may try to remain in power for as long as possible in the hope that its popularity will improve before 2018.
International Implications
Though a marked departure from the current administration, a government including the FPO would not be novel in Austria. In the early 2000s, the party was a member of a coalition government along with the OVP. (In protest, the European Union temporarily restricted diplomatic ties with Vienna.) But by comparison, a parliamentary election in the current political environment could yield a different result. Recent opinion polls indicate that the FPO could win enough seats in parliament to secure seniority in a coalition government.
Recently, the FPO's leader, Heinz-Christian Strache, said he wants Austria, like Switzerland, to become a direct democracy, where important decisions are subject to referenda. As a part of that strategy, Strache proposed a referendum on Austria's eurozone membership. He also said people in the South Tyrol region, which Austria lost to Italy during World War I, should be given the chance to decide whether to join Austria. Strache's statements come as governments and opposition parties across the European Union are promising referenda on several issues affecting the Continental bloc, a process that could lead to greater fragmentation in Europe. A nationalist government that puts EU issues to a popular vote could set an example for other member states.
Even if Austria's current coalition manages to remain in power, Vienna will continue to feel pressure from the nationalists. The migration crisis is not over, and Vienna's moves to reintroduce border controls at the Brenner Pass have already raised Italy's hackles. Moreover, because the FPO opposes making concessions to Turkey, Austria could soon face domestic pressure to resist EU initiatives to waive visa requirements for Turkish citizens in June, resume accession talks with Ankara and grant it up to 6 billion euros ($6.8 billion) in financial aid. As the European crisis has demonstrated, nationalist parties do not necessarily need to hold power to set the political agenda in their countries.
