The coming days will provide an important gauge on the future of relations between the European Union and Turkey. The Turkish parliament is working to pass a series of reforms requested by the European Union in exchange for its lifting of visa restrictions on Turkish citizens. The European Commission will publish an assessment of Turkey's progress on Wednesday, but the final decision on whether to introduce a visa-waiver scheme for Turkey will be made in late June by EU member states and the European Parliament. If they fail to introduce the scheme, it would seriously jeopardize EU-Turkey cooperation on migration in the Aegean Sea.
In early April, Ankara started to take back hundreds of migrants who had arrived in Greece from Turkey. In exchange, EU members promised to restart negotiations on Turkey's EU accession, give Ankara up to 6 billion euros (nearly $7 billion) in aid and grant visa-free travel to Turkish citizens starting in July.
The first two promises are not fully supported by all EU nations, but they will likely be honored. In March, EU members circumvented opposition by Cyprus and agreed to start talks on one of the 35 policy standards that Turkey has to meet before joining the bloc. Many countries resist Turkey's EU membership, but negotiations are expected to take years, giving opposing member states and institutions plenty of opportunities to derail them in the future. Delivery of the money should not be a problem either. Brussels recently complained about EU members dragging their feet on their financial contributions to the deal with Turkey, but the funds will eventually become available.
However, visa liberalization may be difficult to pass. Especially in Northern Europe, governments are wary of granting that privilege to Turkish citizens. Some fear that it would be easy for Turkish visitors to overstay the 90-day limit that would be accepted under the visa-waiver regime. Others are reluctant to give Ankara too many concessions at a time when there are questions about Turkey's commitment to the rule of law, freedom of the press and the rights of migrants. EU governments are also afraid that concessions to Turkey could hurt them politically at a time when nationalist and right-wing political parties are gaining popularity.
For the Turkish government, visa liberalization carries strong political significance. Many Turks, especially those in the middle and upper-middle classes in urban areas, see European visa restrictions as humiliating. Additionally, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) would consider a successful visa-waiver scheme a political victory against the domestic opposition after years of relatively cold relations with the European Union. The migration crisis has given Ankara leverage in its yearslong negotiations with Brussels over visa liberalization, and it is using the threat of ceasing cooperation on the migration crisis to apply pressure to Europe.
An Awkward Situation for Germany
To receive visa-free travel, Turkey must meet 72 technical conditions, including improving the protection of minority rights, introducing anti-corruption measures and issuing biometric passports that meet EU standards. Turkish officials have said that while they have made significant progress in meeting these criteria, some measures will not be introduced in Turkey's parliament before the May 4 European Commission report. A positive report would put Turkey one step closer to achieving its goal, but the final decision will not come until late June.
This puts Germany in an awkward position. Berlin is worried about making too many concessions to Ankara, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel has linked her political future with the European Union's asylum agreement with Turkey. Berlin's decision in September 2015 to open Germany's doors to asylum seekers led to a dramatic rise in immigration. The move created friction within the German coalition government and contributed to growing support for the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany party as voters started to worry about the social and economic impact of immigration. This explains why Berlin wants to keep the agreement with Turkey in place, even at the price of making unpopular decisions, such as acceding to Turkish demands to prosecute a German comedian who mocked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
France and the Netherlands are wary of making concessions to Turkey, but they will probably side with Germany and back the visa-waiver scheme. Italy will likely back the deal, too, because Rome wants EU members to shift their focus from the Aegean situation to the increasing flow of migrants across the Mediterranean Sea from North Africa. Poland and Hungary also recently said they would back the deal with Turkey. Resistance to the visa-waiver scheme could come from Austria, where the government is probably afraid that a deal with a large Muslim country would benefit the nationalist opposition. Other smaller countries could also stand in opposition, but they lack the political weight to derail the agreement. To take effect, the visa liberalization plan must be approved by a qualified majority of EU member states, meaning it could survive some resistance.
Potential Problems
The visa-waiver deal could still face significant constraints. For instance, EU member states could amend the deal to impose restrictions. German media recently reported that Berlin and Paris are discussing ways to insert clauses that would give the European Union a mechanism to rapidly suspend visa-free travel agreements with non-EU countries if they no longer meet certain criteria (Ukraine, Georgia and Kosovo are expecting to receive visa waivers in addition to Turkey). The visa-waiver agreements could be suspended if, for example, there is a “substantial increase” (no specific numbers were given) of visitors overstaying their visas. These clauses could appease political opponents in Northern Europe but could also irritate the Turkish government.
Additional challenges could come from the European Parliament during its deliberations over the agreement. Resistance there could open lengthy negotiations among the institution and member states to ratify the scheme. A prolonged dispute between EU bodies could reduce Ankara's interest in cooperating on the migration crisis.
Turkey faces problems even in introducing the requested reforms. Ankara has been moving slowly when it comes to granting more rights to refugees, especially the right to work. On April 27, a parliamentary session to consider some of the measures requested by the European Union was suspended after a fistfight broke out among lawmakers. The fight was fueled by the controversy surrounding clashes between Kurdish militants and Turkish security forces, and by disputes between the government and opposition parties over EU demands. Monday's session was also suspended after a fight among lawmakers, this one connected with the conflict between the AKP and the pro-Kurd opposition. Additionally, lifting travel restrictions to Cypriot citizens remains a thorny visa issue because Turkey does not recognize the government in southern Cyprus.
With almost a million migrants having reached Greece by sea in 2015, the European Union is interested in preserving its agreement with Turkey, especially because the pace of arrivals has decreased since migrants began to return to Turkey in April. This will leave member states open to making concessions to Ankara, even unpopular ones. But the Continental bloc will probably look for ways to restrict those concessions, while the Turkish government is unlikely to fully enforce every measure it introduces under EU pressure. Ankara could also demand future concessions from the European Union, such as improved trade agreements or the expansion of a safe zone in northern Syria. As a result, present and future agreements between Brussels and Ankara will be fragile and difficult to maintain.
