Tuz Khurmatu, a diverse town of fewer than 100,000 people, has long been a hot spot for ethnic and sectarian clashes in Iraq. But violence between the Kurdish peshmerga and Iraq's Shiite militias surged after the town's latest cease-fire unraveled on Sunday. On Wednesday, the two factions reached a tentative agreement in Tuz Khurmatu after the United Nations, United States and United Kingdom urged them to defuse tensions and focus on the fight against their common enemy, the Islamic State. So far, violence between the Kurdish and Shiite militias has been largely confined to the town, but the clashes reveal a much broader issue for Iraq, both in its battle against the Islamic State and in its internal, political battle in Baghdad.
The conflict in Tuz Khurmatu epitomizes the ethnic and sectarian issues that are so disruptive for Iraq's security situation and political future. Clashes among Iraq's ethnic and religious groups hinder their cooperation in operations against the Islamic State. In Tuz Khurmatu, the spotlight is on tensions between the Kurdish and Shiite communities. It is one of many areas that the Kurdish peshmerga stepped in to defend against the Islamic State after Iraqi security forces retreated. Now, Arbil and Baghdad each lay claim to the town. Unsurprisingly, after retaking the city from the Islamic State, the Kurds decided to stay and govern the territory, which Arbil considers its own. Meanwhile, Shiite militias are trying to push the Kurds out and return the contested territories to Baghdad's rule.
The real danger of the battle in Tuz Khurmatu lies not in the violence but in the risk that, in fighting each other, the Kurds and Shiites are diverting their attention from the Islamic State. One official in the Kurdistan Regional Government, in fact, called it a "huge mistake" for peshmerga forces to combat the Islamic State before beating the Shiite militias. For their part, the Shiite militias have recently demonstrated their commitment to dislodging the Kurds from disputed territories. On Tuesday, the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, a Shiite militia, threatened force if the Kurds failed to leave Tuz Khurmatu within 24 hours. If the peshmerga and Shiite militias prioritize their fight against each other over their fight against the Islamic State, Iraq's security forces will not get the additional support that they need.
Moreover, if the enmity between the two militias persists, they may refuse to collaborate in future missions. Historically, clashes between Kurdish and Shiite militias have been more frequent in Tuz Khurmatu than in other areas. Even so, ongoing hostilities in the town could impede the militias' cooperation. As Iraqi security forces focus their efforts toward Mosul and northern Iraq, Shiite militias will be deployed more often near Kurdish-administered areas. Their involvement in Iraqi security operations in the Hawija pocket, for instance, could lead to fighting with the Kurds around Kirkuk, an oil-rich and hotly contested city currently under Kurdish control.
With these considerations in mind, the militias reached Wednesday's tentative security agreement. After negotiations among a Patriotic Union of Kurdistan representative, the governor of Kirkuk, the head of the Badr Organization and the leader of Kataib Hezbollah (who is also deputy chief of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces), an agreement was announced, aiming to satisfy both Kurdish and Shiite concerns. Although Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi called for a cease-fire on Monday, local political and militia leaders, and not those from the capital, brokered Wednesday's agreement.
In fact, Baghdad itself is rife with political conflicts and struggles among various political blocs. For months, al-Abadi has faced protests demanding political reform. In recent weeks, the new Cabinet he proposed in response to those demands has elicited protests both from members of parliament within the Council of Representatives and from Muqtada al-Sadr's supporters on the streets. Baghdad's political uncertainty creates additional barriers in the government's ability to restore order to contested territories around the country where militias clash.
The security agreement aims to maintain a balance in Tuz Khurmatu between Kurdish forces and those loyal to Baghdad without including the militias involved in the recent violence there. To that end, joint forces, including Iraqi state police and Kurdish Asayish forces, will secure the town. Even if the security arrangement in Tuz Khurmatu allows the violence to subside, however, it does little to address the fundamental problem of the disputed territories.
Ethnic and religious groups in Iraq will continue to vie for territory in operations against the Islamic State to gain resources and political leverage. The infighting will divert attention away from the operations themselves, weakening the Iraqi security forces' capabilities. And even if Iraqi forces manage to achieve cooperation among the country's disparate militias in these operations, Baghdad will struggle to control the territory that it purports to retake. The resulting insecurity in Iraq could threaten the country's oil output, affecting international supply levels. Within the Middle East, countries with interests in Iraq, such as Iran and Turkey, will continue to expand their influence through the militias they support, often at the expense of Iraq's security and political unity. At the same time, the international community — in particular the United States — will continue to support Iraq's fight against the Islamic State. But concerns will persist that ethnic and sectarian disputes will undermine the country's efforts to combat the group and that, in turn, Iraq will undermine the security of nations around the world.
