Leaders from across the globe will gather in Washington from March 31 to April 1 for the fourth and final Nuclear Security Summit. They will discuss multilateral efforts to prevent nuclear terrorism and the smuggling and proliferation of nuclear materials. There are a number of things that all can agree on. Among them, that nuclear weapons in the hands of sub-state actors is a bad thing and that safeguards should be taken to ensure the security of nuclear arsenals in states where political stability cannot be taken for granted. But, as with most summits of this nature, this gathering will not bring about enforceable measures on a multilateral level. The real substance to be found at the summit will emerge from the meetings taking place on the sidelines.
Addressing North Korea's Nuclear Program
One event to watch will be Chinese President Xi Jinping's meeting at the White House with U.S. President Barack Obama. This will be the two leaders' first meeting in 2016 and is likely to be Xi's final visit to Washington before Obama leaves office. Much of the discussion will revolve around the recent advances in North Korea's nuclear program. North Korea is working to build up the credibility of both its developing nuclear deterrent and the leadership of Kim Jong Un in the lead-up to this year's Congress of the Workers' Party in Pyongyang.
Beijing's inability to influence North Korea is increasingly obvious. What's more, China is unwilling to impose punitive measures on North Korea that might cause instability along the countries' shared border. Pyongyang's nuclear advances have invigorated bilateral defense ties between the United States and South Korea as well as multilateral defense ties between the United States, South Korea and Japan. Notably, Obama will hold a joint meeting with South Korean President Park Geun Hye and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on the same day he meets with Xi.
For evidence that China is worried that growing military connections between the United States, South Korea and Japan will undermine its security imperatives in the region, one need only look at Beijing's repeated objections to talks that began in March between Washington and Seoul over the possible deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile defense battery in South Korea. Xi will also use the opportunity to discuss with Obama rising tensions in the South China Sea, particularly regarding U.S. freedom of navigation operations, which have become routine. Washington uses these operations to challenge Beijing's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea. If the United States adheres to its plan of two freedom of navigation operations per quarter, the second operation of the first quarter will take place soon, adding to the already tense dialogue surrounding the South China Sea.
Russia: Absent, but on the Agenda
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is another key leader to watch in Washington. Poroshenko is desperately trying to cobble together a stabler political coalition in Kiev to satisfy his Western backers in hopes that they will unfreeze a $17.5 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. At the same time, Poroshenko's visit comes during an uptick in diplomatic activity between the United States and Russia over eastern Ukraine and Syria. Russia said months ago that it would not attend Obama's nuclear summit, but the dialogue between Washington and Moscow has become quite serious ever since Moscow, in a notable concession, withdrew a portion of its troops from Syria.
Russia is expecting the United States to return the gesture by withholding lethal military aid to Ukraine and by encouraging Kiev to recognize some level of autonomy for separatists in eastern Ukraine. For Kiev to make any concessions, however, Moscow would at least have to cooperate with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe to pull back Russian forces behind its border with Ukraine. There are no signs of the negotiation reaching that stage just yet. In Washington, Poroshenko is set to speak with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and may meet with Obama. These meetings should shed some light on how far the White House is willing to go in convincing Kiev to keep Moscow engaged.
Unnerved by the heightened diplomatic engagement between Washington and Moscow, Polish President Andrzej Duda will be on a mission to round up allies and make the case for keeping the pressure on Russia. Poland is determined to secure firmer security guarantees from NATO to bolster defenses in Eastern Europe. Complicating that agenda, however, is the spotty record of Duda's conservative ruling party when it comes to protecting the country's rule of law and democratic principles. So far, Obama has not agreed to meet with the Polish president, who is under heavy scrutiny by the Europeans and human rights organizations. Even if Duda fails to get a meeting at the White House during the visit, the United States will continue to prioritize its alliance with Poland, given Warsaw's central role in organizing an effective European counterweight to Russia.
Tense Meetings With Turkey
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan managed to secure a meeting with Obama, even though the U.S. president declined Erdogan's invitation to attend the opening of a mosque in Maryland funded by Turkey. This will be a tense and likely inconclusive meeting in many respects. Turkey is not particularly enthusiastic about holding negotiations over the creation of a federal system in Syria, were a political transition to take place there. This is especially true now that Turkish leaders are staring at the prospect of a Kurdish mini-state on the Syrian border. In need of reliable ground proxies but also aware of Turkey's concerns, the United States will maintain a necessarily ambiguous line on its support for the fighters from the Kurdish People's Protection Units and will refuse Turkey's efforts to get the United States to declare the group a terrorist organization.
Erdogan intends to use his speech at the summit as an opportunity to push his plans for establishing a safe zone in northern Syria. Theoretically, a safe zone would fulfill a collective desire to mitigate migrant traffic while addressing Turkey's goal of containing Kurdish territorial ambitions. In his private discussions with Obama, Erdogan will also press the U.S. leader to work out an understanding with Russia to advance plans for a safe zone. Russia maintains a heavy presence in Syria, however, and will not clear the way for Turkey to move into the country's north without securing concessions from both Washington and Ankara. If Turkey does not get the cooperation it seeks from the United States on northern Syria, Ankara will continue to press the White House to ignore that Turkey is growing its military footprint in northern Iraq under the pretense of fighting the Islamic State.
