U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry visited Moscow on Tuesday, where he held marathon talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and then with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is the end of a difficult year for relations between Moscow and Washington. The two powers have been on opposing sides of conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, and the United States is showing no inclination to lift or ease its sanctions against Russia. With the holidays and new year approaching, Kerry's visit could be the last chance to achieve any progress on the many contentious issues between Washington and Moscow before 2016.
Some positive signs did emerge from the meetings. On Syria, Lavrov said agreements were reached to draw up a list of terrorist organizations and to assist the United Nations in setting up a representative delegation from the Syrian opposition. Lavrov added that the two sides "discussed in detail where we are in regard to the Syrian settlement" and mentioned a meeting of the International Syria Support Group that will take place in New York on Dec. 18 with both sides in attendance. Kerry said he agreed with Putin that Syria must hold elections and that the Syrian people must themselves decide the future of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. This is a slight but notable shift from the United States' earlier insistence that al Assad should not play a role in Syria's political transition.
The United States and Russia are demonstrating some degree of cooperation as they try to find a resolution to the Syrian war. Still, Kerry's visit served as a reminder of the vast gulf that remains between the countries on the strategic level. When it comes to the Syrian dialogue, disagreement persists over which rebel factions are approved to be at the negotiating table and which should be targeted on the battlefield. Russia continues to target Free Syrian Army rebels in its airstrikes, and a Turkmen faction of the Free Syrian Army shot the pilots of the Russian fighter jet that Turkey shot down. Moreover, the list of terrorist groups that the United States and Russia come up with will still have to be reconciled with Turkey, which is a significant backer of red-lined groups such as Ahrar al-Sham.
The United States has meanwhile been trying to mediate between Ankara and Moscow in recent weeks following the downing of the Russian fighter jet, and Kerry probably used his visit to try to bring Moscow closer to a reconciliation. A strained relationship between Turkey and Russia is beneficial for the United States because it draws Ankara closer to NATO. But Washington does not want the standoff to turn into a full-blown confrontation, and it wants to de-conflict the battlefield as much as possible as it gears up for a larger offensive against the Islamic State. It will be important to watch for any shift in the Russo-Turkish dialogue in the coming days.
Ukraine is another contentious issue between the United States and Russia that has potential for progress. Prior to Kerry's meeting with Putin, Lavrov acknowledged that Washington's influence over Kiev could "promote the work of the Normandy format," referring to negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France over the Ukraine conflict. The United States is not involved in these negotiations, though Washington does hold direct talks with both Kiev and Moscow in other formats. Lavrov's statement could indicate that Russia is open to getting the United States more involved in the talks, just as officials from other countries such as Poland have proposed expanding the format heading into next year. Russia would agree to bring the United States into the Normandy talks only if it were receiving other assurances from Washington, especially since having Washington in the Normandy negotiations would only reinforce Kiev's position.
However, this is another case where more talks do not necessarily translate into improved relations or a potential resolution to the broader issues between Washington and Moscow. The United States has been adamant that Russia must completely implement the Minsk protocols — which call for a full return of the border between Russia and the separatist territories to Ukrainian control — before any sanctions can be eased or lifted. Russia has in turn tried to exact political concessions from Ukraine first, but Washington has maintained support for Kiev's position that the full implementation of the Minsk protocols' security components is a prerequisite for progress on the political components, knowing that Ukraine has its own significant domestic constraints on this issue.
Russia's broader strategy in Ukraine — to use the conflict in the country's east to undermine Kiev and reverse its shift to the West — fundamentally conflicts with U.S. interests in the country. This fact makes any negotiations between the two countries over Ukraine extremely difficult, no matter the format. Further complicating matters, both Russia and the United States and NATO are increasing military exercises and weapons buildups along the European borderlands.
Therefore, it comes as no surprise that Kerry's visit to Moscow produced minor tactical progress and sound bites rather than demonstrable progress toward resolutions of the various points of contention between the United States and Russia. There is certainly room for either side to bend a little during negotiations, but neither is ready to break from its strategic position.
