Violence is once again rising in Burundi, and as the death toll mounts, the country's neighbors are becoming increasingly concerned that the conflict could spill across their borders. Several international organizations have even expressed fears that Burundi's political turmoil could spark broader ethnic strife throughout an already restive East Africa region. But these dire predictions probably will not come to pass, because Burundi's leaders — and its watchful neighbors — have every incentive to keep the bloodshed in check. 

Burundi's latest troubles began in April, when President Pierre Nkurunziza announced that he would seek a third term in office. The move prompted mass protests as well as the departure of several of the ruling party's more moderate leaders. Since then, at least 240 people have been killed in a swell of political unrest. The turmoil reached new heights within the past few weeks after Nkurunziza, who successfully won the country's presidential election in July, was sworn into office. (No credible monitors oversaw the election or can verify its outcome as legitimate.)

Nkurunziza's bid for a third term violated the terms of the Arusha Accords, a peace deal struck in 2000 that set presidential term limits at two and helped bring an end to the country's long and bloody civil war five years later. Nkurunziza's controversial actions, coupled with his broader disregard for Burundi's constitutional protections, have made him an increasingly isolated figure on the international stage, especially among Central and East African countries. Many have also indirectly blamed him for instituting a hostile environment in Burundi that is becoming more insecure for many of the country's citizens. With few supporters and numerous opponents, the president and his remaining advisers have become paranoid that a traitor may lie in their midst — a suspicion no doubt strengthened by a failed coup attempt in May and the assassination of a key ally in August. With the defection of his party's more moderate members, Nkurunziza is now surrounded by its more extremist — and more violent — remnants. U.N. Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide Adama Dieng has likened the Burundian administration's rhetoric to the language used by Rwandan authorities before and during the 1994 genocide, fueling concern that Burundi may be in for a genocide of its own. On Nov. 12, the United Nations, the African Union and the European Union released a statement calling for urgent talks to de-escalate the crisis and warning that the conflict could spiral out of control at any moment, triggering ethnic violence that might spread far beyond Burundi's borders.

But Burundi is not Rwanda. Its current unrest is political in nature and directly linked to Nkurunziza's third presidential term, not to a long-standing history of ethnic injustices committed against Burundi's citizens, and no foreign-backed militia is angling to depose Nkurunziza. Therefore, warring between Burundi's political factions is not likely to lead to violence elsewhere. Of course, an escalation in the conflict is a real danger. But the fighting will be rooted in political discontent and will remain largely confined to the borders of Burundi. However, if ethnic violence rises to the point that a significant number of Burundian civilians can no longer be protected, neighboring countries will take steps to prevent a civil war from breaking out. African and global leaders are now much more sensitive to the threat of genocide than they were in 1994, and they will move to eliminate that threat before it materializes. Nkurunziza undoubtedly knows this and will endeavor to keep the situation from meriting external intervention, which would likely cost him his post.

Still, a resolution to the conflict will not come easily. Burundi's neighbors will be reluctant to interfere in the domestic affairs of another African state, for fear of setting a precedent that could endanger their own sovereignty. Meanwhile, any peace deal would require compromise on the part of the Nkurunziza administration, something that is unlikely to be forthcoming from a leader bent on keeping power within his tight circle of supporters. And as Nkurunziza continues to drag his feet on making concessions, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni's efforts to bridge the gap between Burundi's competing political factions will likely stall.