Russian President Vladimir Putin called his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on Wednesday to congratulate him on the strong showing his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) had in elections over the weekend. The victory will allow the AKP to form its own government — a surprise to most Turkey watchers, who expected the AKP to fail to secure a majority and another turbulent round of political negotiations to begin between the AKP and opposition parties. Moscow welcomes the election results because they clearly have given Russia a group within Turkey to negotiate with at a time when several crucial issues have complicated relations.
Most recently, Russia's expanded role in Syria has pitted Moscow and Ankara against each other. Turkey is one of the primary backers of the Syrian rebels, while Russia supports the government and its forces. In the end, Syria is Turkey's backyard, and from Ankara's perspective Moscow is meddling a little too far outside Russia's sphere of influence. Their common ground is their opposition to the Islamic State, but Turkey has the larger objective of eventually cultivating a Sunni-led Syria in which it can have some authority.
Moreover, Russia has recently warmed up to Azerbaijan, Turkey's traditional ally in the Caucasus. The Caucasus is one of the areas where Ankara and Moscow compete directly. Rumors have been rampant that Baku is interested in shaking up the status quo in the standoff with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, but Baku is unlikely to take any major military action without first consulting Moscow, which is Armenia's security patron. Either way, Turkey would want to remain part of any discussion involving Azerbaijan and its plans for Nagorno-Karabakh.
Lastly, Russia and Turkey have been struggling during the past year to finalize a deal for natural gas supplies. After Russia canceled the South Stream project, Russia's natural gas giant, Gazprom, and Turkey's natural gas firm, Botas, signed an agreement in December 2014 for a replacement pipeline project with a capacity of at least 30 billion cubic meters: TurkStream. The agreement is contingent on Turkish parliamentary approval. In February, Gazprom agreed to give Turkey and Botas a 10.25 percent discount on natural gas supplies, which would retroactively apply from December 2014, when the initial supply contract was signed.
However, the countries interpreted the discount agreement differently. Russia insisted it would give the discount only if the Turkish government approved plans for TurkStream. Ankara and Botas say the agreement is between two energy firms, Botas and Gazprom, and not subject to Ankara's approval of TurkStream. Russia froze talks once the AKP lost its parliamentary majority in June's general elections, and on Oct. 27 Botas filed a case for international arbitration against Gazprom. A few days later, however, Turkey held snap elections that gave the AKP the majority it had lost five months earlier.
With a relatively stable government once again in Turkey, both sides can finally find room to move forward. Turkish Energy Minister Ali Riza Alaboyun said Wednesday that if Moscow will agree to the retroactive discount, Botas will drop the arbitration case. Gazprom in recent weeks also said it was looking for an out-of-court settlement. Gazprom still maintains that the Turkish government will need to approve TurkStream, but at least now there is a consolidated government in place that can take those steps.
The energy sector seems to be the one area in which Russia and Turkey can make minor repairs to their deteriorated relationship. Putin and Erdogan are likely to promote their strengthening energy ties during a bilateral meeting at the G-20 summit on Nov. 15 and during an upcoming visit by Erdogan to Moscow. A full TurkStream agreement between Turkey and Russia may not be finalized before the end of the year, though progress looks likely. But behind the Russian and Turkish leaders' friendly meetings, major disagreements will persist between the countries for the foreseeable future.
