On Oct. 25, Poland's opposition Law and Justice party met the widely held expectation that it would win the country's general elections. More unexpected, however, was the wide margin of the victory. Political commentators had been predicting a messy coalition-building process whereby Law and Justice would have had to seek partners among an unenthusiastic group of smaller parties. Instead, Law and Justice is the first Polish party since the country's turn from communism in 1989 to earn the majority in parliament needed to govern alone.
Law and Justice's victory should be understood as a continuation of the trends seen across Europe since the crash of 2008. The party is staunchly nationalist and seeks to protect Poland's interests against the perceived encroachment of European federalism. Thus, although EU legislation requires Poland to eventually join the eurozone, the actual deadline for joining has always been vague and now the possibility has become even more remote. Looking more broadly, Poland, led by Law and Justice, will likely lend greater support to the U.K. Conservative Party – with whom it shares a party in the European Parliament — in its efforts to reclaim national sovereignty from the European Union.
On other foreign policy matters, Law and Justice will not diverge from the stance of its predecessor, Civic Platform, particularly when it comes to immigration. Poland has figured prominently among the Eastern European voices arguing against the forced redistribution of immigrants across the Continent, and the newly elected populist party will maintain this stance. Poland's position in the standoff between Russia and the West will also remain fundamentally unchanged, though Stratfor will be watching closely to see how Poland's relationship develops with the rest of the Visegrad Group (Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic). Visegrad countries are similarly sandwiched between Russia and the West, but have differing attitudes toward Russia. Poland is more antagonistic when it comes to Russia, which has historically hamstrung attempts to strengthen ties between Poland and the group's other members. Under Law and Justice, Poland will be just as wary of Russia, but the immigration crisis could give it and the other Visegrad countries more common ground. And if Poland becomes more confrontational toward Europe, it could move even closer to its Visegrad partners.
Ultimately Poland, with its precarious position on the North European Plain, is significantly constrained in its options, and the profile of the government does not change that fact. Whoever rules Poland will have to cope with the threat of an aggressive Russia on its eastern flank and an economically degraded Europe to the west. With Ukraine locked in conflict to the southeast and NATO and Russia both pursuing military buildups along the Eastern European borderlands, of which Poland is a part, securing Western support will still be one of Poland's top geopolitical priorities.
