Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to the United States next week will put his political strategy in Syria to the test. Putin is looking to re-engage with the global power brokers that have been punishing his country since 2014, and he is betting that a strong role in Syria will buy him leverage at the negotiating table. On the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York, where he is set to give a speech Sept. 28, Putin will try out his newfound bargaining power in a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama.
The sit-down will be the two presidents' first meeting on U.S. or Russian soil since Putin's 2012 return to the presidency. The top issue will be a Russian proposal for the conflict in Syria, which seeks to coordinate ongoing U.S. efforts with Russia's stepped up operations in a way that recognizes the role of the forces of Syrian President Bashar al Assad in the campaign against the Islamic State. However, Moscow has included a crucial concession in the potential agreement that conforms to a key U.S. demand: a political transition away from the current government. Washington has also proposed that Russia join the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, something the Russian Foreign Ministry has said is "theoretically" possible.
According to reports in U.S. media citing anonymous Russian sources, Moscow is prepared to move forward with a unilateral campaign against the Islamic State if the United States does not cooperate. Leaks to Russian media outlets Kommersant and Novaya Gazeta suggest that Russia might do so while Putin is in New York, perhaps even during his U.N. speech. This is a plausible threat — the Russians already have significant assets in place and are ready to begin air operations. Unconfirmed reports from Syrian government and pro-rebel sources are already indicating that Russian airstrikes may have commenced in support of the push to relieve loyalist forces at Aleppo's Kweiris air base.
Russian operations against the Islamic State would likely take place in several places across Syria. In Homs, Russian forces could support a government counteroffensive against the Islamic State-held city of Palmyra. An intervention could also support the besieged Syrian 104th Republican Brigade in Deir el-Zour or the ongoing push toward Kweiris air base. The Russians are also likely to provide air support to Syrian loyalist forces fighting against non-Islamic State rebels: Jaish al-Fatah in northwest Hama province and the Latakia mountains, Turkish- and Qatari-backed rebels in Aleppo and Saudi-backed Jaish al-Islam in and around the city of Damascus.
Russia's timing is deliberate. Moscow has purposely built up its position in Syria to coincide with Putin's visit. By intervening in the crisis, Russia wants to show that its standoff with the West over Ukraine has neither isolated it nor made it any less integral to the international system. It is also signaling that Russia can still partner with the United States despite the apparent erosion of relations between the two countries. Syria has induced the United States to meet with Russia after months of scant negotiations.
Moscow will take this opportunity to try to initiate talks over a host of other issues, including Ukraine, Western sanctions and NATO's expanding presence. The United States, however, has not indicated a desire to shift its position on these issues. On the contrary, Washington is lobbying the Europeans to maintain sanctions on Russia in spite of a relatively solid cease-fire in Ukraine and election compromise proposals from Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. The meeting between Putin and Obama will indicate whether the United States plans to stand firm on these issues or open the door for future negotiations.
