Russia's liberal opposition has been largely scattered and disorganized since one of its leaders, Boris Nemtsov, was assassinated in late February. But with an eye toward the Sept. 13 elections, many of the various factions began to form a loose coalition in April. Alexei Navalny's Progress Party and Nemtsov's RPR-Parnas (now run by former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and Ilya Yashin) aligned themselves first. Opposition heavyweight Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his Open Russia movement then backed the partnership, as did several smaller opposition parties such as Democratic Choice, the December 5th Party and the Libertarian Party. Their moves represent the liberal opposition's first real attempt to coalesce into a single, unified force since the 2011-2012 mass protests against the Kremlin. However, the coalition did not go so far as to merge into one party, a decision that has prevented it from becoming a true political rival to the Kremlin.
Although the opposition had little chance of gaining many positions in the recent round of elections, the Kremlin cracked down on the coalition's parties and leaders, as well as the journalists who supported the various movements. The Russian government revoked the registry of Navalny's party in May and denied most of the liberal opposition parties the right to run campaigns in certain cities, including Novosibirsk.
As a result, the opposition focused the bulk of its attention on the Kostroma region, north of Moscow. The Kremlin allowed RPR-Parnas and its leader, Ilya Yashin, to run for positions in Kostroma's regional parliament, giving rise to speculation that the government planned to use the region as a test case to see if the opposition could politically motivate the population. Despite its high popularity among the Russian people, the Kremlin fears its support may soon start to decline in the face of continuing Western pressure and with no economic relief in sight. This concern was also one motive for moving up the national parliamentary elections, which were originally set for December 2016.
The Kremlin Tightens Its Grip
The Kremlin maintained pressure on RPR-Parnas in the months leading up to September's elections, despite its decision to allow the party to run. Yashin's campaign manager, Andrei Pivovarov, was charged with stealing personal data, and the government denied the party media access and the right to put up signs and posters. On the day of the elections, police stormed the headquarters of the opposition coalition Open Choice, claiming to be acting on a tip that a murder had taken place inside the building.
As the polls closed on Sept. 13, conflicting results emerged. Yashin and his RPR-Parnas claimed to have exceeded the required 5 percent threshold with 6 percent of the vote. But state-owned polling center VTsIOM denied that claim, saying the party and its leader had only garnered 2.6 percent of the vote. Yashin and his supporters, including influential opposition leader Navalny, announced plans to organize protests for the weekend of Sept. 19. On social media outlets, the opposition movement has been referencing the Kiev protests in February 2014 through the use of Anti-Maidan terms — a serious concern for the Kremlin. And on Sept. 13, small groups numbering in the dozens gathered in the center of Kostroma.
Still, the Kremlin is prepared to quash any protests or public disturbances. Ahead of the elections, the Interior Ministry deployed 124,000 supplementary police forces across Russia, including to Kostroma. With the government visibly ready to crack down on dissenters, the opposition has already begun to backtrack. On Sept. 14, it conceded defeat in Kostroma and delayed protests until at least Sept. 20.
Though Russia's liberal opposition proved unsuccessful in this round of elections, election results indicate that the various factions may be able to unite before next year's crucial national elections. But the Kremlin has also shown that it is prepared to counter any solitary opposition force that emerges, particularly as mounting economic and international pressure threatens its support base at home.
