Iran's parliament voted Tuesday to approve a bill that sets strict limits on international inspections of Iranian nuclear sites, a hotly debated aspect of negotiations between Iran and the six world powers. The bill would prevent the Iranian negotiating team from agreeing to allow foreign access to Iranian military sites, areas deemed as strategic to Iranian security, non-nuclear facilities and Iranian scientists. The bill still needs approval from the Guardian Council, Iran's top legal vetting body, which is charged with interpreting the constitution and approving the eligibility of political candidates. The Guardian Council is expected to approve the bill as part of a tacit negotiation between Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the parliament.
As in the United States, Iran is on the cusp of an important political season. Iranians will head to the polls Feb. 25, 2016, to elect not only the 290 members of the parliament but, for the first time in the country's history, the members of the Assembly of Experts as well. Iran's political system is a complex network of bodies that oversees the country's legislative and judicial branches but also ensures policies adhere to religious tenets and the ideals of the 1979 revolution. The Assembly of Experts' primary role is the selection — and potentially the removal — of the supreme leader, Iran's highest office.
The Iranian parliament has been eager to expand its role in negotiations, including potential oversight. As in Washington, Iranian lawmakers — especially conservative lawmakers — are afraid that the nuclear negotiating team will give away too much. Challenges to the supreme leader and president's authority steadily increased until this past weekend, when the parliament passed a law reaffirming the supreme leader's constitutional role as arbiter of foreign policy decisions, agreeing to abide by his decision on whether a deal is approved. It would appear that in exchange, parliament will be assured of strong limits on foreign inspectors eager to test Iranian compliance.
The supreme leader will celebrate his 76th birthday in mid-July, mere weeks after the July 1 deadline for a nuclear deal. Although the government maintains he is healthy, Khamenei had well-publicized surgery last September, and there are many rumors concerning health issues, including a possibility of prostate cancer. Khamenei may also opt to retire in coming years, with February's elections potentially determining not only the nature of Iran's parliament for the next four years but also the next supreme leader.
The West, seeing the potential for political change on the horizon, has been eager to get a deal signed sooner than later. Sensing these concerns, Iran has long broadcast that it views deadlines as "suggestions" and that it does not feel obligated to adhere to a particular date. But the Iranian public is eager for sanctions relief. The convoluted process of lifting sanctions will take several months after a deal is signed, and any tangible impact for Iran's nearly 80 million citizens could take far longer. In many respects, the anticipated landmark nuclear deal between Iran and the West will be a first, cautious step; the nuclear framework agreed upon in April established a 10-year verification period before sanctions can be fully lifted. The West will have to manage a decade-long inspection program and will likely deal with another supreme leader, another president and another parliament.
Public reaction to the negotiation process has become a key concern among Iran's political elite as well. President Hassan Rouhani's administration has linked negotiations to the lifting of sanctions and a promise of renewed economic growth for much of the Iranian people. Consequently, a deal that does not immediately include a lifting of sanctions or better domestic economic conditions risks seriously eroding popular support for the Iranian president. And as the February elections near, familiar faces are slowly resurfacing. Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a conservative populist who still enjoys broad support among many Iranians, is rumored to be forming a political party to contest the elections. These rumors prompted strongly worded reactions from Rouhani and others, including former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and many in both the conservative clerical and reformist camps.
As Iranian and Western diplomats continue difficult discussions in this final week of scheduled negotiations, Iranian politicians have two dates in mind: the nuclear talks' deadline of July 1 and the election date of Feb. 25. The campaign season will shape Iranian concessions and set clear conditions for the Iranian negotiators, who have the unenviable task of having to deliver their compatriots from an international sanctions regime while hard-liners expect them to compromise on nothing.
