The president of Venezuela's National Electoral Council held a nationally televised unscheduled press conference June 22 to announce that legislative elections would be held Dec. 6. While it is not unusual to formally call for elections six months ahead of the scheduled date, the council's silence on electoral proceedings over the past several months spurred speculation among observers within Venezuela's political opposition that the election would be delayed or canceled outright — a move that would be politically untenable for the weakening government in the long run. In analyzing the costs and benefits to the government, Stratfor forecast that the government would hold elections rather than risking the consequences of not holding elections. The National Electoral Council announcement means that Venezuela has committed itself to holding elections, but political uncertainty will grow in the coming months as the country's long-running crisis progresses.
It may be no coincidence that the electoral date came relatively soon after the clear opening of tentative negotiations between the United States and Venezuela on the re-establishment of diplomatic relations. In the last three months, the U.S. State Department sent an emissary to meet Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro twice in Caracas and Venezuela National Assembly Speaker Diosdado Cabello in Haiti. But the U.S. decision on whether to grant Caracas' request for re-establishing diplomatic ties appears to be conditional on Venezuela's freeing political prisoners and setting a date for legislative elections. However, the United States is not dealing with a single Venezuelan political entity. As the Venezuelan political structures and order created during Hugo Chavez's 13-year rule begin to unravel under the stress of a major economic crisis, the institutions and individuals held together in that system are now trying to secure their stakes in the future Venezuela.
Venezuela's government is a complex web of interlocking political relationships built during chavista rule. Several groups and individuals merit closer observation to determine how Venezuela's immediate future will develop. The first person to consider is Cabello. As National Assembly speaker, he stands to lose immunity if the opposition sweeps the December elections — a possibility that is growing more likely as a majority of opinion polls show the ruling party trailing the opposition coalition Democratic Unity Roundtable. Cabello faces an investigation for cocaine trafficking through Venezuela to the United States — a crime entailing potential arrest and extradition if Cabello loses his immunity. Consequently, Cabello has joined Maduro in reaching out to the United States on the modest goal of appointing ambassadors, and Cabello likely will remain involved in this outreach to reduce his personal risk. Initially, Cabello was publicly absent from the negotiations. But in the face of growing political challenges from Maduro, Cabello seems to have inserted himself in the negotiations for the long run.
The Cuban government will also play a role in Venezuela's transition from chavista rule. Recent information indicates that the Cuban government is still receiving 80,000 to 90,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil per day — a reduction from the 120,000 barrels per day it received in 2012 but still within the upper echelons of what Venezuela's oil agreements with Havana stipulate. It appears that Cuba's crucial security cooperation with Caracas has not dissolved in recent months and that as long as the oil continues to flow, Cuba will continue to support Venezuela.
Cuba is in an uncertain period of rapprochement with the United States. Despite opposition to such aid within the Venezuelan government, Havana still has an interest in Caracas' continued energy assistance. The Cubans' links to Venezuela's armed forces and specific factions of the government likely will keep this energy relationship in place for now. Moreover, Cabello visited Cuba on June 20 and met with both Raul and Fidel Castro, likely a sign that even one of the most powerful men in Venezuela must still take Cuban interests into account when making foreign policy decisions.
Maduro and his immediate entourage must also be considered. During his presidency, Maduro has overseen the most significant deterioration of Venezuela's economy in more than a generation. Economic and political reforms — such as removing currency controls, devaluing the currency and raising the price of fuel and food — could begin to right the economy, albeit at great political cost. Resistance from within the ruling party is also likely delaying these measures. Negotiations with the United States could help Maduro in this regard, because drug trafficking indictments may force Cabello and other Venezuelan officials into not openly opposing Maduro's policies. Staying in negotiations with the United States — both for the short-term effect on his opponents and the potential long-term benefit for the economy — thus could help Maduro.
But even if each major faction secures its short-term needs, long-term stability is not guaranteed. Venezuela's economic unraveling is an unsolved problem, and nobody has a quick solution. Once the election is held, the government will likely have to take long-delayed economic measures, or Venezuela will have to risk reaching the next presidential election with shortages, rampant inflation and extreme currency distortions. However, the political cost of those measures is a major question for Venezuelan leaders. Sharp economic change is almost a necessity at this point, but it will undoubtedly result in protests and major electoral losses for the ruling party. Doing nothing only risks exacerbating the problems and will multiply the future threats to the government.
But Maduro has begun to cobble together an attempt at a solution. The negotiations with the United States could intensify in the coming months. The talks probably will involve concessions, possibly including the formation of a unity government with the Venezuelan opposition and financial assistance for Caracas. However, with government figures increasingly trying to secure their own stakes and segments of the political opposition trying to foment a political solution through street protests, Venezuela faces a difficult path to stability.
