Muhammadu Buhari will make his first trip abroad as Nigeria's democratically elected president June 2-4, traveling to neighboring Chad and Niger. Although Buhari will express gratitude to the leaders of these countries for their military actions against Boko Haram militants during his predecessor's administration, he also will make it clear that Chadian and Nigerien military forces can no longer conduct unilateral military operations on Nigerian soil. Instead, Buhari will call for military cooperation with Chad and Niger to support effective border patrol operations on their sides of the Nigerian border, and he will ask for intelligence cooperation to interdict the cross-border movement of Islamist fighters.
The only way Nigeria will be able to enforce Buhari's stance will be to fight Boko Haram effectively. Stratfor forecast that of the many demands on Buhari's administration, the new president will begin by prioritizing counterinsurgency efforts against Boko Haram, which were a lower priority for Buhari's predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan. If Chad and Niger are satisfied with Nigeria's achievements against the militant group, they will have no reason to move forces into Nigeria, which would align with the political interests of the new Nigerian government.
Chad and Niger's intervention against Boko Haram inside Nigeria was anomalous and controversial for many Nigerians. Historically, Nigeria had maintained a strong military for internal and regional security and had never relied on other countries to mitigate threats against it. However, under Jonathan, the military was underfunded and underequipped, leading to poor morale and even desertions on the battlefield. Under these conditions, which allowed Boko Haram to attack freely and effectively secure control over much of northeastern Nigeria, Chad and Niger took matters into their own hands and moved into Nigeria to attack the Islamist militants.
Jonathan had political reasons for withholding resources from the Nigerian military. As a civilian from the country's minority Ijaw tribe, Jonathan feared being undermined or even overthrown by a strong military. Buhari, however, is a former general and hails from the dominant Hausa-Fulani tribe; he thus does not fear subversion by the military and its political allies.
Moreover, Stratfor sources in Africa report that the contract for South African military contractors hired by the Jonathan administration to advise and train the Nigerian division deployed against Boko Haram was not renewed. The former Koevoet troops, who also led the Nigerian troops in the battlefield against Boko Haram, have returned to South Africa. This development shows that Buhari is returning Nigeria to its former stance of demanding effective national security from its own forces rather than relying on foreign troops or contractors. Continuing to lean on hired guns or neglect the country's territorial integrity is politically untenable in Nigeria, something Jonathan discovered in the last presidential election. Moreover, with morale running high and the Nigerian military likely to become more empowered through sustained increases in materiel, expectations for more effective security operations without external assistance have risen.
Buhari's other priorities include Nigeria's economy and fiscal policies, but he has yet to name a single Cabinet minister or address the stalled federal budget. His steps to reassert Nigerian military control within the country indicate that restoring national security is his top priority. Moreover, with Boko Haram defeated in its quest for domination over Nigerian territory, the fight against the Islamist militants could be less daunting for Nigeria — and for Chad and Niger — than when Boko Haram attempted to carve out a West African caliphate. So far, indicators suggest that Buhari will be able to empower Nigerian forces and prevent Chad and Niger from intervening against Boko Haram on Nigerian soil.
