Ben Sheen: Hello and thank you for joining us. My name is Ben Sheen, I'm a managing Editor at Stratfor, and today I am joined by Vice President for tactical analysis, Scott Stewart. We'll be talking about the most recent attack in Garland, Texas. So Scott, what we saw on the evening of May 3, 2015: two attackers armed with Kalashnikov rifles attempted to conduct a mass shooting incident at a controversial art exhibition in Garland, Texas. What do we know so far about the nature of the attack?

Scott Stewart: Well Ben, it really looks like another one of the long litany of attacks that we have had surrounding the Mohammed cartoons. Going all the way back to 2006, we've had incident after incident of violence. Early on we saw things like embassy burnings and the burning of restaurants and shops. Then, later on, we've been seeing more targeted attacks. Most recently, of course, we had the Charlie Hebdo attack in January in Paris, where that newspaper was attacked over the same issue. A month later, in Coppehagen, Denmark, at a similar type of free speech, cartoon event with a high profile speaker, was attacked by a lone gunman. So, these incidences continue to happen, and this issue continues to stir violence and obviously emotions.

Ben: Do we know anything about the attackers themselves, Scott? One of them, Elton Simspon, he was actually a convert to Islam, wasn't he?

Scott: Yes, Simpson is interesting. He had actually been rolled up by the FBI in early 2010 for attempting to travel to Somalia to fight with al Shabaab. Then, he was sentenced with just one count of lying to FBI agents in early 2011. He's definitely a known quantity, but he doesn't look like he was a trained individual. One of the things we've been talking about here at Stratfor for a long time now, is that with this grassroots jihadist threat, there's really a continuum of actors. At the low end of the spectrum, you have these untrained guys, who are really more aspirational than capable. Then, at the high end, we have these professional, trained terrorists. Now, just because these guys were untrained doesn't mean they're not dangerous. We've seen several incidences where untrained guys have gone into soft targets and been able to cause quite a bit of carnage. What happened here though, because of the incidences earlier this year — because of Charlie Hebdo and the one in Copenhagen — they had some security at this venue. So when these untrained guys rolled up and got ready to shoot, they ran into security that took them out pretty quickly.

Ben: Clearly, because of the nature of the event, the controversy surrounding the depictions of the Prophet Mohammed, there was an increased presence of security on the ground in Garland wasn't there?

Scott: Yes, and really, that's what happens with these low level, grassroots guys. They're capable of hitting these soft targets, unprotected targets; but when it comes to more difficult targets, targets with security, they run into problems.

Ben: Clearly Simpson had been previously turned away from fighting overseas, in this case with al Shabaab. Do you think we're going to see more frustrated, grassroots Jihadists, who cannot actually go and fight in wars — like in Syria or Iraq or with the Islamic State — do you think we're going to actually see them turn to softer targets domestically when they can't actually get overseas to fight with other organizations?

Scott: Well, certainly, that's what they're being told by these groups. For really five or six years now, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has told these guys, 'don't come here, stay home and do the attacks at home.' Then, of course, we've had the Islamic State say, 'come with us and fight in the caliphate. But if you can't make it to the caliphate, strike at home and strike as hard as you can.' This is really the third incident that we've seen recently in North America.

Ben: Clearly, in the case of Garland, it was thanks to the quick reaction of security forces on the ground that there weren't any fatalities.

Scott: Absolutely, if it hadn't been for that security, we could have had another Charlie Hebdo case right in the United States.

Ben: Scott, thanks for taking the time to talk through this today. For more on this topic and many others, please continue to read Stratfor.com