The succession struggle has emerged as a competition between two main factions: one led by Vice President Joyce Mujuru, and the other by Justice Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa. Initially, Mugabe opposed both factions, accusing them of betraying ZANU-PF and sabotaging the party from within, although Mugabe never acted strongly against Mnangagwa. However, it seems that in the meantime the president has made peace with the idea of a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe and the need for a stable transition of power at some point.
Mnangagwa remains a powerful player with ambitions to succeed Mugabe. He has considerable support from the country's security organizations and orchestrated Mugabe's last significant electoral win. In 2008, ZANU-PF's victory over the Movement for Democratic Change required extensive efforts from Mnangagwa's security agencies. Once the runoff election was scheduled and ZANU-PF departments and personnel were sufficiently deployed, the opposition party — led by Morgan Tsvangirai — no longer posed a threat to the ruling party.
Mugabe has been far harder on Mujuru's faction, concentrating his attacks on the vice president. On Nov. 26, the party rejected Mujuru's bid to take part in the leadership election during the congress. Two of Mujuru's key allies in ZANU-PF, Rugare Gumbo (the party's spokesman) and Didymus Mutasa (the party's secretary for administration) were removed from their offices recently in an obvious attempt to weaken Mujuru's faction. Mugabe's new power to directly appoint deputies also means that Mujuru's remaining support inside the party will not help her faction retain its current position during the party congress.
This is not the first move within the ruling party to curtail Mujuru's influence in favor of Mnangagwa. Mujuru's husband, Solomon Mujuru, was Zimbabwe's first army commander and was attempting to gain support within Zimbabwe's army when he died in a house fire in 2011 under unclear circumstances. His death was likely arranged to consolidate the loyalty of Zimbabwe's security agencies under Mnangagwa.
Moreover, Mugabe recently has had his wife, Grace, who previously had not been a political actor, lead the ruling party's Women's League. Grace Mugabe's sudden appearance in Zimbabwean politics has spurred rumors that she is being positioned to take over once Mugabe leaves office. However, it is more likely that her entrance into the political scene is a form of assurance that the Mugabes will continue to be involved in Zimbabwe's ruling circles after Mugabe's presidency ends. Grace Mugabe has also been the president's main instrument in criticizing Mujuru, and her appointment as the leader of the Women's League allowed Mugabe to push one of Mujuru's allies out of the position.
Notably, neither the president nor his wife has attacked Mnangagwa directly, despite their vocal opposition to the competition between the party's factions. This is a strong indication that Mnangagwa is ahead in the race to succeed Mugabe. Mnangagwa and his supporters hold important security portfolios in Zimbabwe, making them crucial to Mugabe's authoritarian rule and electoral victories. In the end, a faction with so much influence could offer the best chance for a stable transition of power once Mugabe steps down or dies.
Although the succession battle may be reaching its culmination, and Mugabe's appointed successor is likely to become apparent in the upcoming party congress, this does not necessarily mean that a succession is imminent. Mugabe has clearly indicated that he is not ready to give up the presidency yet. When stability within the party returns and one particular faction can start settling into its role of grooming the successor, the current government could easily stay in place at least until the next election in 2018 (if Mugabe's health allows him to rule that long).
