For Spain and Portugal, 2015 will be a politically turbulent year; both countries will hold general elections in the context of timid economic growth and corruption scandals. The Greek government, in the meantime, is trying to end its bailout program this year and remain in power until the general elections of 2016.
On Nov. 25, the parliamentary leader of Portugal's Socialist Party said that the party's "responsibility with the future of the country" would not be affected by the ongoing corruption accusations against former Prime Minister Jose Socrates. In Spain, a Nov. 24 opinion poll showed that anti-establishment Podemos is the country's most popular political force. In these countries, the combination of economic malaise, corruption scandals and growing disconnection between voters and mainstream parties are testing the resilience of political systems built after dictatorships.
When the European crisis began, Spain, Portugal and Greece had center-left governments; leaderships that ended prematurely in 2011 because of the application of unpopular austerity measures. These governments were replaced by conservative administrations, which are now entering their final months with mixed results. Unemployment is slowly going down, and their economies are expected to grow between 0.6 and 1.2 percent this year. However, life for a large number of Portuguese, Spanish and Greeks remains difficult. These nations are still dealing with depressed salaries, high rates of emigration and the fact that large portions of the working population hold only part-time jobs. The recent corruption scandals will probably deepen popular mistrust of mainstream parties.
The situation is particularly acute in Spain, where a series of corruption cases affecting the ruling Popular Party were recently revealed. In October, a Spanish judge uncovered a network of public officials and businessmen involved in the irregular awarding of public contracts. Last year, the party was investigated over alleged irregularities in its financing. These cases come on top of other corruption scandals involving Spanish bankers and contribute to a growing perception by voters that the entire establishment (from politicians to bankers) is corrupt.
This helps explain the rise of Podemos, which was born earlier this year and has skyrocketed in opinion polls. Armed with a strong anti-austerity platform, Podemos is seriously challenging Spain's traditional two-party system. Its rise is affecting the agenda of mainstream parties; for instance, on Nov. 24 the Socialist Party announced that it supports reforming the article of the Spanish Constitution that sets a limit on public deficit and debt (an article that the Socialists backed in 2011). More important, Spain's political crisis is putting the entire constitutional system that was built in the late 1970s in question as a growing number of Spanish voters who oppose the monarchy and the unitary state would like to see Spain become a federal republic.
A few kilometers to the west, Portugal is also dealing with a notorious corruption scandal. Jose Socrates, a former prime minister, was arrested at Lisbon airport Nov. 21, on suspicion of tax fraud, corruption and money laundering. Although Socrates retired from politics in 2011, the case will probably hurt the popularity of the Socialist Party, which is currently the main opposition force. The party is struggling to come up with a unified reaction to the accusations against its former leader. Because the corruption investigation will dig into the actions of Socrates' administration, other members of the party could be investigated.
One of the many political consequences of the economic crisis in Europe is that traditional parties are losing support to new anti-establishment parties. But these parties are not homogeneous, and there is an ideological divide between northern and southern Europe. In countries such as France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Sweden, the crisis has benefited right-wing parties, which have a strong anti-immigration and anti-EU agenda. In Spain, Portugal and Greece, however, the crisis is a boon for parties in the left, which mostly focus on more public spending and a renegotiation of sovereign debt. Part of the reason for the rise of the left is that Spain, Portugal and Greece have relatively fresh memories of right-wing dictatorships, and unemployment and debt are also perceived as particularly serious problems. The growing popularity of Podemos and Greece's Syriza are in line with this trend. Portugal has yet to see a similar phenomenon, but if it happens it will probably come from the left as well.
Yet, left-wing parties are still struggling to come up with a cohesive position on the European Union. On the one hand, they criticize the fiscal consolidation measures imposed on their countries by the European Union. On the other, they promise to reform the European Union without dismantling it. Podemos and Syriza have promised to restructure their countries' national debt but have been ambiguous on their positions regarding the eurozone. Portugal's Socialist Party has been vocal in its criticism of austerity measures but remains deeply committed to the euro. Portugal has smaller communist parties that criticize the euro, but they have yet to capitalize on the corruption scandals and austerity measures.
Regardless of the future of these specific parties, they are setting the political agenda in Spain, Greece and, to a lesser extent, Portugal. The previous political cycle in southern Europe put center-right parties in power. The next one will probably bring about a substantial challenge to the mainstream forces, both in the center-right and the center-left. Policies such as fiscal consolidation and debt repayment, which the traditional parties largely supported, will be called into question. This will generate new waves of political and economic uncertainty in an already fragile eurozone.
