Compaore has served as the Burkinabe president since 1987, when he overthrew Thomas Sankara, his comrade and fellow junior officer at the time. (Compaore and Sankara led a successful coup in 1983.) Since coming to power, Compaore has guided Burkina Faso's transition from an overt military regime to a democratically elected government facing a vibrant political opposition. Still, the country's military plays a behind-the-scenes role as a guarantor of national order. The importance of this role became apparent Oct. 30, when the Burkinabe military did not side with either Compaore or the opposition during protests. Instead, the military confirmed that a transitional government would be formed and that the country would return to a constitutional order in no more than 12 months.
Burkina Faso is a diverse country, with approximately 80 ethnic groups among some 17 million people. Observing how ethnic rivalries generated civil wars in neighboring countries, Compaore used his military and Marxist backgrounds to underwrite and enforce domestic political stability. Eventually, Compaore dropped Marxism and overt military rule when multiparty democracy was legalized for the 1991 elections. To compensate for its underdeveloped and largely agrarian-based economy, Burkina Faso looked for foreign investment to start and expand a gold mining sector. Ouagadougou has sought this foreign patronage by developing its role in mediating conflicts in Francophone West Africa.
Regional Mediator
Under Compaore, Burkina Faso has been an important mediator in the region’s recent conflicts, notably in Guinea, Ivory Coast and Mali. Ouagadougou's mediation efforts have translated into political and financial support from partners ranging from the United States to France. But Burkina Faso's mediation efforts are driven by opportunities, not by inherent geopolitical means. In the case of the Malian conflict, Burkinabe mediation, while important, was complemented by Algerian mediation. Moreover, Burkina Faso could not supplant the crucial military role that France and Chad played to stabilize the Sahelian country when al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb threatened to overrun it in 2013.
Not all of Burkina Faso's foreign involvements have been constructive, either. Compaore contributed to regional destabilization by permitting former Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi to funnel weapons through Burkinabe territory to then-Liberian leader Charles Taylor in the late 1990s. In the same decade, Compaore permitted Angola's opposition party, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, to smuggle diamonds through his country's territory and allowed it offices to purchase weapons. Compaore was also accused of empowering the Ivory Coast’s New Forces when the movement was a rebel group fighting former Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo. (The New Forces have since been adopted into the country's armed forces under current President Alassane Ouattara, who defeated Gbagbo in the country's 2011 civil war.)
Maintaining Stability
Regional mediation and obstruction aside, Burkina Faso sought to make itself a reliable trans-shipment point for resources shipped to and from Sahelian countries and the Atlantic coast. Burkina Faso maintains principally road-based connections that Mali and Niger use for supply chain purposes. However, Bamako and Niamey have redundant supply chain routes for their import and export purposes — namely via the Ivory Coast and Senegal, in the case of Mali, and Benin in the case of Niger — that make Burkina Faso a secondary route. Still, improved road and rail connections in Burkina Faso facilitate greater foreign investment in the country, especially for the gold sector output destined for global markets.
Despite unrest, resistance to Compaore’s rule and bid for a term beyond 2015 has not generated opposition to Burkina Faso’s policies. While a change in government personnel may take place, Compaore's likely replacements would be drawn from current and former members of his government and the ruling Congress for Democracy and Progress party. Compaore's main political opponents were dissidents from his ruling party who criticize the president's personality rather than his policy substance. The formation of a new government without Compaore therefore would not result in a shift in Ouagadougou's policy preferences. Furthermore, a new Burkina Faso government will likely reassure the investor community and its foreign policy partners that continuity, albeit without Compaore's personality, remains.
