The European Commission is often described as the executive arm of the European Union, given that it is charged with proposing and implementing legislation along with managing the European Union on a day-to-day basis. Its members come from the 28 countries of the Continental bloc and are supposed to protect overall EU interests rather than the interests of individual member states. The commission, however, is primarily a political institution tasked with finding a balance between pushing for a deepening of the process of European integration and finding compromises between the often divergent interests of member states.
A Rough Start
Juncker's commission began amid controversy surrounding his own appointment. The former prime minister of Luxembourg was by no means Germany's first choice, though German Chancellor Angela Merkel (under pressure from her own conservative party) eventually supported him. British Prime Minister David Cameron meanwhile tried to block Juncker's appointment, seeing him as a representative of the "old" European elites who would stall change on the Continent. Cameron also opposed the idea of having the leader of the main party in the European Parliament directly appointed as the commission's president. Despite this opposition, Juncker managed to get elected by offering a compromise to the largest parties in the European Parliament — the Socialist Party and the European People's Party — as well as to the largest economies in Europe.
As a result, Juncker's commission will be a mix of center-left and center-right, with some representatives from Central and Eastern Europe holding unusually prominent positions. Juncker also decided to create a special group of vice presidents who theoretically will hold more power than the regular commissioners. Exactly how this system will work remains unclear, since commissioners with different ideologies are expected to share responsibilities on issues such as fiscal consolidation and energy.
The confirmation hearings for the commissioners-elect at the European Parliament were typically turbulent. Members of the parliament criticized a British lord who will supervise the financial sector, a former Spanish minister with links to oil companies, a Hungarian former foreign minister accused of supporting anti-democratic policies and, in particular, a Slovenian self-appointed candidate who performed poorly during her hearing. (The latter controversy was so intense that she wound up stepping down and being replaced by another Slovenian official.)
Rising Euroskepticism
This beginning was not unusual. Most European Commissions have had difficult starts, and the European Parliament often makes a show of taking a hard stance on future commissioners to enhance its own role within the institutional framework of the European Union. The key difference is that Juncker's commission must deal with a particularly adverse political landscape in Europe. Recent elections for the European Parliament showed that Euroskeptical parties are on the rise, and anti-system and anti-immigration parties are gaining ground in many member states. In many countries, these parties are fighting head-to-head with moderate parties to gain the lead in opinion polls.
Euroskepticism goes well beyond anti-European parties: Moderate governments in traditionally pro-integration countries are increasingly challenging Brussels' leadership. France and Italy are openly criticizing EU debt and deficit rules. The United Kingdom and Hungary are demanding the repatriation of powers from Brussels. Austria and Bulgaria are pushing for exceptions in EU energy legislation to allow the construction of the South Stream pipeline. And most countries along the external borders of the European Union are ignoring European regulation on asylum seekers and allowing immigrants to go elsewhere in the Continent.
The European Commission has a tradition of pushing an integrationist agenda. Over the past six decades, Brussels has promoted a deepening of the process of Continental integration by which countries progressively relinquish national sovereignty and move toward a more federal Europe. Member states, however, often resist this push. In the mid-1960s, France temporarily withdrew its members from the Council of Ministers to protest reforms in the Continent's agricultural policy, and in the early 1990s Britain and Denmark obtained opt-outs during the negotiations to create the European Union. EU political fragmentation, however, has never been this severe. The European Union was built on the promise of peace and economic prosperity. It still delivers the former, but there are growing doubts about the latter. As a result, the next commission will struggle to remain relevant and make its voice heard.
During the five years the present commission is in power, Germany, France and the United Kingdom — the three largest economies in Europe — will hold general elections. The United Kingdom could also even hold a referendum on whether to remain part of the European Union. In each of these elections, Euroskepticism will probably play a central role. Europe's politics are moving toward increasingly Euroskeptical positions, and the debate over different aspects of the process of Continental integration (from the free movement of people to the union's supranational powers or the management of the euro) will be discussed during upcoming electoral campaigns.
Fighting an Unraveling
Despite demands by London and others, the Treaty of Lisbon probably will not be reformed under the Juncker commission's mandate. Europe's ruling elites are worried that a treaty renegotiation could open the door to a reversal on integration, with more and more countries demanding opt-outs and special concessions. Over the next five years, the European Union is also unlikely to accept new members, even if ongoing negotiations (especially with countries in the western Balkans) will continue. This does not mean that the European Union will remain static. In fact, quite the opposite is true because Brussels will focus most of its energy on keeping existing structures from falling apart.
Juncker's new team will also have to deal with a seemingly endless list of EU economic, political and social challenges, from finding new ways to reduce the Continent's dependence on foreign energy to coming up with additional policies to create jobs and generate sustainable economic growth. The commission will also have to continue negotiations with the United States on the controversial Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and to design new policies to deal with rising levels of asylum seekers. And it will have to do all this in the context of economic stagnation and growing political fragmentation, as countries refuse to commit additional funds to the EU budget, national interests continue to diverge and decision-making becomes increasingly complex.
