Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the Oct. 8 improvised explosive attack that wounded two Israeli soldiers patrolling near the Lebanese cease-fire line in the Shebaa Farms area. The Israeli military responded with artillery fire at two Hezbollah positions following the attack, but the border has since returned to a state of quiet tension.
Hezbollah is feeling overstretched as it responds to multiple potential threats. The group is already heavily invested in the Syrian civil war, deploying not only advisers but also combat units across the country in support of the Syrian government. Moreover, Hezbollah has been increasingly wary about its position at home since spillover violence from the Syrian conflict began to spread in Lebanon, including Oct. 5 clashes between Jabhat al-Nusra fighters and Hezbollah combatants near Baalbek. Additionally, Hezbollah has no choice but to remain on the alert for hostilities from its traditional enemy, Israel, which continues to monitor the group's activities very closely.
It is improbable that Hezbollah would seek a fight with Israel at this time. As Stratfor noted in July, Hezbollah is highly concerned by the attrition rates it has suffered in the ongoing Syrian war and has already tried to protect its core veteran units by replacing them with less effective new recruits in Syria. It is not an exaggeration to say that another battle with Israel on the same scale as the 2006 war could put Hezbollah's current form of existence at risk. Thus, attacks such as the Oct. 8 incident have been extremely rare over the last few years.
Israel is well aware that Hezbollah and Syrian government forces are largely unable and unwilling to confront Tel Aviv due to their preoccupation with the Sunni uprising. Because of this, the Israelis have been very proactive in striking Hezbollah and Syrian army positions, repeatedly bombing weapon convoys, bases and facilities in Syria. The Israeli military has also been very quick to retaliate to the slightest provocation in the Golan Heights. It has repeatedly bombed Syrian army positions due to accidental cross-border fire and even shot down an Su-24 jet that briefly strayed across the border.
From Hezbollah and the Syrian government's perspective, a complete lack of follow-through after Israeli attacks would defang their repeated threats of retaliation. Thus, Hezbollah has increasingly felt the need to show it will not tolerate attacks after letting numerous Israeli strikes go unpunished. At the same time, Hezbollah has to keep its retaliation measured, minimizing the risk of an escalation that could lead to another round of significant fighting with Israel.
The Oct. 8 improvised explosive device ambush of the Israeli patrol must therefore be seen in light of Hezbollah's constraints. The attack in itself is not necessarily proof that Hezbollah is craving a fight with Israel, much less a fight on the scale of the 2006 Lebanon War. It is instead a measured retaliatory act to show the Israelis that they must factor Hezbollah's capabilities into their increasingly aggressive actions against the group and its Syrian allies. Indeed, a source has informed Stratfor that Hezbollah wants to warn Israel to back off as the group becomes more concerned about Syrian rebel activity near the Bekaa Valley.
For now, it seems the risk of an escalation stemming from the recent attack has ebbed. However, as Hezbollah and Israel increasingly seek to assert themselves in a highly volatile conflict, even limited attacks such as the Oct. 8 ambush could have unintended consequences and lead to another conflagration between Hezbollah and Israel.
