France will miss its deficit targets, but Paris is not feeling apologetic about it. According to details of France's 2015 budget released Wednesday, the country will not comply with requirements set by the European Fiscal Compact of 2012 until 2017. The government released a defiant statement along with the numbers: "No further effort will be demanded of the French, because the government — while taking the fiscal responsibility needed to put the country on the right track — rejects austerity." Such rhetoric may seem jarring for a government with a 13 percent approval rating announcing a failure. But in truth, Paris has been warning for months that that it might miss the fiscal targets. Rather than a shot across the bow of Germany — the main driver of Europe's austerity demands — the statement should be read mostly as a gesture toward the elements in the French parliament that are threatening to block the controversial budget.

Enemies besiege the government of French President Francois Hollande. Having originally been voted into the Elysee in 2012 on a socialist tax-and spend-platform, Hollande performed a sharp about-face in January this year when he announced a program of spending cuts worth 50 billion euros (roughly $68 billion). His rightward shift was then reinforced by his appointment of the center-right Prime Minister Manuel Valls in May following a disastrous showing in the European Parliament elections. Though welcomed by Germany, which is always gratified by greater thrift, the policy shift left a less ideologically fluid wing of Hollande's party feeling deeply disillusioned. In August, French Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg launched an attack on austerity, saying France should no longer be "pushed around" by Germany. Montebourg was ejected from Hollande's Cabinet along with two prominent supporters of the minister, but 32 Socialist Party "rebels" abstained from a subsequent no-confidence vote (the government won by a small margin), highlighting the continuing split within the ruling party. 

Though it has agreed upon a budget, the government still needs to push it through the divided French parliament. This will not be easy, considering that the party could face resistance from both its own rebels and the opposition Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), which gained a weapon of passive resistance this past weekend by winning a majority in the French Senate. Though the UMP nominally occupies the same ideological terrain that Hollande has been moving toward, as the opposition it can be relied upon to create obstacles for the government wherever possible. In the event of steadfast resistance from parliament, Valls and Hollande will technically have the constitutional power to force the budget through without parliamentary approval, but such a move would risk another no-confidence vote.

The socialist rebels understand that voting against the government would be equal to voting themselves out of power, making such an outcome unlikely. Nevertheless, their threat to do so, along with the fact that a broad swathe of the French public shares their sentiments, has inhibited Hollande's ability to appease Germany and the European Commission concerning the budget. Assuming the budget makes it through the French parliament, it will still have to pass muster in Brussels. However, though Germany and the European Commission retain the ability to impose sanctions on France, this threat has lost a great deal of credibility. Paris will be hoping that Germany and the European Commission will show a measure of understanding of France's plight — a likely possibility — in light of the appalling economic conditions across Europe.

These are the forces buffeting France: External pressure from the European core pushes for a reduction of spending and a balancing of the books, while the French public, the labor unions and a large proportion of the sitting parliament support the 35-hour work week, a tax-and-spend outlook, and the "war on finance" that Hollande promised in his election campaign. Caught in the middle is a president facing the lowest approval rating of any president in the Fifth Republic and suffering a year of scandal in his private life, whose prime minister has also seen a collapse in popularity since May. The elephant in the room is the National Front of Marine Le Pen, a right wing anti-immigration party that has been gathering momentum. Indeed, a recent poll revealed that Le Pen would defeat Hollande in a run-off were the presidential election to be held immediately. But the likeliest benefactor of Hollande's weakness is former President Nicolas Sarkozy, who declared his return to politics in September and seems certain to be a strong presidential candidate in 2017.