Some areas of eastern Ukraine have changed hands, as forces from both sides appear to have given up untenable positions since the cease-fire commenced Sept. 5, but most of the military activity has focused on maintaining some degree of pressure and reinforcing or redeploying existing forces. Russia has rotated out some of the forces it deployed into eastern Ukraine, though most troops are still located near the border. According to NATO, four Russian battalion task groups remain inside Ukraine.
The guns have not gone completely quiet in the Donbas region. Artillery shelling has been most intense around the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk. Near Luhansk, the town of Shchastya has been targeted heavily. This location is of particular interest to separatists and Russians because it links deeper Ukrainian military positions southwest of Luhansk with Ukrainian-controlled territory.
Around Donetsk, much of the artillery fire — as well as reported skirmishes between ground forces allegedly including armored units — has centered on the city's airport. Gaining control of the airport would benefit the separatists by preventing Ukraine from using it to supply forces in the area or deploy air assets. Moreover, with Russian forces repairing the runway of the Luhansk airport and setting up communications infrastructure there, control of the Donetsk airport could allow for an air bridge in support of separatist forces.
In Crimea, where only a small amount of fighting has taken place, Russia continues to build up military forces. In recent weeks, Russia deployed Su-30 fighter aircraft and Mi-24 combat helicopters to Crimea and moved ground forces closer to the border with Ukraine. Such deployments clearly demonstrate Russia's ability to launch military operations from Crimea — either westward toward Odessa and Moldova's pro-Russian breakaway region of Transdniestria, northward to the Dnieper River or eastward toward Mariupol, effectively creating a corridor between Crimea and forces in eastern Ukraine.
Even though this option would require a significant escalation of Russian military involvement in Ukraine and risk stronger sanctions from the West, Russia's demonstration of its capabilities in Crimea forces Kiev to disperse its troops in preparation for multiple threats. The move also strengthens Moscow's negotiating position by highlighting the potential for a return to military action.
Indeed, military force is still a viable choice for Russia, and Moscow constantly reminds Kiev of this fact. However, a return to a full commitment to the military option would be expected only if the Kremlin's political, economic and energy levers of influence — along with the continued threat of military action — fail to turn Ukraine into a neutral buffer state. The Ukrainian government has demonstrated its commitment to negotiating a de-escalation in the conflict by enacting laws that grant autonomy to separatist regions and by offering some militants amnesty. Kiev's willingness to grant concessions to Moscow is likely in hopes of staving off further significant Russian military activity in the region.
