This year's Diada will be the third since the current movement to declare independence began in 2012 and the final one before the referendum date set by Catalonia's regional government in Barcelona. Over the past two years, the Catalan government has submitted repeated requests to Madrid to authorize an independence referendum, but the national government has refused to do so. The referendum has created significant tensions within the Catalan establishment, which is divided over what course of action to take in the likely scenario that Madrid officially declares the vote to be illegal.
Catalonia is currently governed by Convergence and Union, a coalition of moderate parties that have long pushed for more autonomy within Spain but only recently adopted a more pro-independence position. This push for separation from Spain was inaugurated in September 2012 Diada rallies and draws heavily on three centuries of Catalan independence movements, linking them to the present Spanish economic crisis. This linkage draws on a widespread belief among Catalans that their region contributes more to the nation's economy than it receives in return and that Barcelona should resist Madrid's attempts to gain greater control over the regional budget.
Following its initial 2012 demonstrations, which led to massive turnouts, Convergence and Union called early regional elections, hoping that the groundswell of support would yield votes for the coalition. The elections, however, actually led to losses for Convergence and Union and gains for the Republican Left, a left-wing party with stronger pro-independence rhetoric. Since then, the Convergence and Union government, headed by regional President Artur Mas, has depended on parliamentary support from the Republican Left to remain in power.
Next Steps
Spain's central government will not provide its consent for an independence referendum in Catalonia. Madrid instead plans to bring the issue before the Spanish Constitutional Court, which will almost certainly rule that the vote is illegal. Some sectors of the Catalan establishment, especially those on the left, believe that Barcelona should hold the referendum regardless of the outcome of a potential court case. In recent months, the Catalan Parliament has approved several laws that, according to those on the left, have legalized the referendum. Others, however, think that Catalonia should refrain from holding a referendum that Madrid declares illegal and instead return to negotiations with the central government.
Mas is trapped between these conflicting forces, as he has been with every issue related to the referendum. He has already issued a promise that Catalonia will move ahead with the vote, but he has also said he will not do anything illegal. In recent interviews, Mas suggested that Catalonia could postpone the referendum, or even hold early elections directly linked to the question of regional independence. If he cancels the independence referendum, early elections will be virtually unavoidable.
The referendum is also generating divisions within the broader Catalan society. Opinion polls generally indicate that most members of the Catalan public support the region's right to decide its future. People differ, however, on what course Catalonia should take if the court declares the referendum illegal. According to an opinion poll conducted by Spanish polling firm Metroscopia, 45 percent of Catalans oppose holding the referendum if the Constitutional Court considers it illegal. Only 23 percent believe the referendum should be held regardless. A further 25 percent say Catalonia should seek a solution to the conflict that does not involve a referendum.
One important aspect of any potential Catalan independence would be whether Catalonia would receive support from the European Union. Membership in the continental bloc would be key for the survival of an independent Catalonia, and Catalan business elites are particularly concerned about this issue. But the European Union has decided that an independent Catalonia would not be automatically accepted into the bloc and would have to apply for membership alongside other potential members. Because the admission of new members requires unanimity, Spain could veto Catalonia's accession.
A Symptom of a Larger Problem
Catalonia's push for independence takes place at a time when Spain is going through a nationwide identity crisis. The constitutional order established in the late 1970s after the end of the Francisco Franco dictatorship is showing signs of fraying. This order is based on the existence of a centralized state alongside regional governments that enjoy different degrees of autonomy. It was also based on an electoral law that created a two-party system, with the center-left and the center-right alternating in power. But the economic crisis has led to an institutional crisis in Spain. The country's territorial integrity is now under threat from Catalonia and, to a lesser extent, the Basque Country. Even the two-party system itself is being challenged by the rise of the anti-establishment Podemos party.
Catalonia probably will not declare independence unilaterally this year, but that does not mean that Spain's identity crisis will be resolved. A significant segment of the Catalan population believes that the existing political system needs to be reformed, either to give the region independence or, at the very least, greater autonomy. The same feeling regarding the need for change abounds among the growing number of Spanish voters who support Podemos and other smaller parties that have arisen to challenge government elites. Even if conflict among Catalan elites and opposition from Madrid temporarily block Catalonia's bid for independence, the national identity crisis will continue to have political effects in the coming years.
