Forces loyal to Kiev face relentless opposition in eastern Ukraine, fighting separatist groups heavily supported and reinforced by Russia. Cracks in Ukrainian military performance and battlefield capabilities are beginning to show, placing significant pressure on President Petro Poroshenko and his government. What Ukrainian forces need most is manpower and professional training — something the West is reluctant to provide. This reticence, alongside existing political stressors in Kiev, plays perfectly into Russia's strategy.
Access to supplies has been one of the major factors in the current battle for eastern Ukraine, and both sides have fought hard to keep transportation routes open and functional. Ukrainian units fighting to protect their supply lines have become encircled in some locations, losing access to logistical support and resupply. While most of the Ukrainian forces in the offensive still have access to supplies required for fighting, the military has been trying to acquire more modern military equipment to improve its effectiveness against Russian materiel deployed in the east. Even if these procurement efforts are successful, any increase in equipment will be offset by a corresponding lack of trained personnel to use it.
Ukraine's military reserves will be critical in maintaining the effectiveness of the ongoing offensive. Because Ukraine has committed the bulk of its military power to operations in Donbas, the government has become reliant on the capabilities of volunteer forces and National Guard units. Many of these groups, however, are simply made up of armed civilians who receive minimal training before being pushed into the battlefield. The recent formation of a volunteer battalion composed of tax inspectors is representative of the stresses Ukraine faces when it comes to manpower.
On the other hand, the pro-Russian separatists are backed by the Russian military, which has ample numbers. This has enabled them to pull from a large pool of trained reserves stationed in Russia, allowing for the rotation of fighters inside defended areas such as Donbas. Ukrainian forces have been engaged in combat for almost two months, since the start of the July 4 offensive. The lack of significant reserves prevents fresh troops from being rotated in and out of the front lines, leading to battle fatigue and reduced effectiveness. The tempo of Ukrainian offensive operations, as well as that of separatist counter-offensives, also offers little time for troops to rest in between intense maneuvers. This permanent rhythm of operations, combined with a lack of major military successes over the last few weeks, has taken a noticeable toll on morale, although this remains difficult to accurately gauge.
Kiev's volunteer battalions in particular have experienced declining morale and a general lack of support. These armed civilian units carried the full weight of offensive operations southeast of Donetsk. In recent weeks, the volunteer battalions have been targeted by the increasingly successful separatist counter-offensives, and regular Ukrainian forces have been unable to relieve or reinforce them. This has sparked outrage from supporters and family members of the volunteer forces. Protests involving 400-500 people took place over the last 48 hours in Kiev amid demands for the resignation of the minister of defense.
Ukraine's strained military position, coupled with indications that popular support may be shifting, only adds to the pressure on the embattled administration in Kiev. Poroshenko is already juggling the fractious state of the Ukrainian government, with parliament dissolved and many of the political parties splitting apart. An announcement that more funds are needed to prop up Ukraine's struggling currency fell alongside energy talks with Russia, which are becoming increasingly grave as winter approaches. With so much to deal with, Poroshenko was forced to cancel his planned trip to Ankara for the inauguration of the new Turkish president, giving up an opportunity to hold bilateral meetings with Western leaders.
Ukraine is beginning to feel increasingly alone in its protracted conflict. While some allies have provided limited support, such as equipment and non-lethal aid, Ukraine is unlikely to receive the significant military help that it desperately needs. Kiev has struggled to access its own airspace in the east, where Russian air defense systems comprised of SA-17 and SA-22 surface-to-air missile units have made it particularly dangerous for the Ukrainian air force to operate. NATO countries are rightfully wary of becoming embroiled in an air war with Russia, let alone committing combat support on the ground. The conflict in Ukraine simply matters much more to Russia than it does to Ukraine's western allies, thus leaving Kiev bereft of powerful external backers willing to go as far as Russia has in support of the Ukrainian separatists.
