Ukrainian forces had been slowly encroaching on the outskirts of Donetsk and Horlivka — two of the main population centers held by pro-Russia separatist militants. The main push by the Ukrainian military to cut these cities off from Russian support took place farther to the east, where it had fought its way south toward the town of Snizhne. This town lies in a critical location. Roads running through it have been critical to separatist forces in bringing reinforcements and Russian support into Donetsk after they lost the ability to move freely across the E40 highway.
Heavy fighting has taken place around Snizhne in recent weeks, but several separatist counteroffensives in the area suggest that Ukrainian government forces at the forefront of this part of the offensive — elements from the 30th and 51st Mechanized Brigades — may be at risk of becoming cut off around the town of Krasnyi Luch. Government troops in the areas connecting these brigades to the main body of forces are spread thin, and even armored separatist reinforcements have been able to make their way into Donetsk from the direction of Snizhne.
While Kiev's overall plan was to isolate Donetsk, achieving this goal has entailed smaller operations that have required Ukrainian government forces to extend farther into separatist-held territory to recover or surround towns near Snizhne. This has placed the units operating between a surrounded city and other separatists to the rear dangerously exposed. This vulnerability has invited separatist counterattacks and even separatist envelopments of government troops in areas such as Krasnyi Luch.
Russian support for the rebel groups, including heavy military equipment, has also continued to make its way into eastern Ukraine, and most important, into Donetsk. This assistance, combined with persistent artillery fire from the Russian side of the border, will significantly boost the separatists' ability to withstand — or even push back — the Ukrainian offensive in several locations. As Ukrainian government forces stretch themselves thin, their ability to interdict support for separatists moving through their positions is eroding.
These separatist movements east of Donetsk and the continued arrival of military support into the city signal a potential turnaround for the government offensive in this part of the battlefield. As Kiev's forces continue to operate near the Russian border, they are coming under increased pressure from Russian artillery. With their positions already stretched thin, further separation has led to several weeks of increased engagement with enemy forces interrupted by only brief lulls in fighting. If separatist forces were able to reconsolidate themselves and force a breakthrough from the east toward Donetsk — reconnecting the city to its supply lines from the Russian border — the recent continuous, small separatist counterattacks could evolve into a larger, more significant setback for Kiev's offensive.
In contrast, Kiev's envelopment of Luhansk farther to the east has progressed, and separatists have lost control of several towns along the E40 highway to the city's southeast. While this will increase the military pressure on rebels in the city, as the situation in Donetsk shows, this type of envelopment is not airtight. Ukrainian government units are mostly deployed in towns controlling the roads leading into Luhansk, but supplies and reinforcements for separatists can still be moved through by bypassing the roads. While the volume of support for separatists that make it into Luhansk may be limited, some assistance and reinforcements are still likely to find their way in.
On the Russian side of the border, the humanitarian aid convoy that Russia is planning to send into eastern Ukraine is still stationed at a field camp. The alleged separatist capture of pro-Kiev fighters who had been planning an attack on the convoy has increased security concerns regarding the convoy. That said, to reach the main population centers in eastern Ukraine, the convoy would already have had to move through Ukrainian military positions, and these security concerns were already tangible. This incident, however, continues to pose the question of whether Russia wants to have an armed escort accompany the convoy.
At the same time, Russia continues to deploy its own forces on the Russian side of the Ukrainian border. The number of Russian troops located on the border is now estimated to be more than 20,000 and continues to grow with more deployments of airborne forces. Apart from the battalion task groups that Russia has deployed along its border with Ukraine, there has also been a further increase in the deployment of air defense systems.
