After weeks of being portrayed as weak and on the defensive, Russia is resuming threats of direct military intervention in Ukraine. The threats are credible, but it's not clear that Russia intends to follow through. What the Kremlin is mainly looking to do is add to its options — ranging from military intervention to de-escalation — so that it may act quickly when it does make a decision on its next move.
In recent weeks, Russia has been building up its military forces on the border with Ukraine. Estimates vary, but U.S. intelligence sources say between 19,000 and 21,000 Russian troops are at the border, while another 20,000 troops are stationed in Crimea — giving Russia some 40,000 troops available to deploy in the area. This troop build-up is different from the military escalation of similar numbers that occurred in March. This time, the approximately 20,000 troops on Russia's border came from bases deeper within Russia instead of the bases near the border. That means there are approximately 40,000 additional troops in bases near the border that can be deployed within 24-48 hours' notice.
The build-up means Russia now has a force of more than 80,000 troops that could rapidly surge into eastern Ukraine. Though this would be a limited direct military intervention, such a force could most likely advance into parts of eastern Ukraine — at least the currently contested parts — though not all of Ukraine.
Another signal that Russia is considering direct military intervention came from Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin, who called for an extraordinary session Tuesday evening to discuss the deployment of an international peacekeeping mission in eastern Ukraine. Of course, Churkin is pressing for Russia to lead this mission, an offer the West will reject.
Russia is framing its possible direct military intervention in Ukraine as a humanitarian one that requires peacekeepers. This would cause other groups, such as NATO, to send their own peacekeepers, leading to a standoff between Russia and NATO troops as seen in Kosovo in 1999.
There are two main factors behind Russia's return to an aggressive stance. First, President Vladimir Putin is reacting to the perception that Russia is weak because of the recent bout of Western sanctions, the resulting sharp economic decline at home and growing divisions among his loyalists. Second, the Ukrainian military has made some notable gains against the Russian-supported separatists in eastern Ukraine. Russian media have blamed the possible presence of U.S. military advisers in Ukraine for the Ukrainian military's sudden ability to organize and operate more successfully.
Russia is worried the Ukrainian military will succeed in fracturing the separatists in the coming weeks, even though the Ukrainian military will have more difficulty in the operation's next phase, which will entail retaking Donetsk city and Luhansk and come as maneuverability deteriorates during the mud season (rasputitsa).
Russia was hoping that the clashes between the Ukrainian military and the separatists would continue at a steady but low intensity until winter, when Russia's leverage (energy supplies and the political pressures on the government in Kiev) would be greater. But if the Ukrainian military continues to have these successes in the east, Russia wants to have the option to change its strategy and could launch a limited incursion into eastern Ukraine.
Another reason Russia wants to wait before launching a direct military campaign is so its levers on the West can be strengthened. Thus far, the U.S. and EU sanctions are not crippling Russia, but they are causing pain. If the European Union adopts crippling sanctions against Russia, then Moscow can directly counter it by stopping natural gas exports to Europe. This threat does not hold much weight until natural gas becomes more vital during the winter months — something Russia is hoping it can wait for as the pressures for a military intervention rise.
So Putin is currently considering whether to use direct military intervention, and if so, when would be best. At this time, Putin is planning his options so he can have flexibility within that decision-making. Such a build-up of threats also gives him more options to de-escalate the situation.
Putin also needs flexibility because he is not just strategizing for the Ukraine conflict but for a host of other issues pressuring him, too. The Russian economy is sharply weakening, something Russia can withstand in the short term but not the medium to long term. Putin may be enjoying high popularity among his people, but the majority of Russians do not want direct military intervention in Ukraine. It is possible, however, that framing such an intervention as a "peacekeeping mission" could change that sentiment. Putin's loyalists in the Kremlin are divided over all of these issues — from Ukraine to the economy. As a result, Putin is trying to maintain the strength and stability of Russia in the longer term, though its fate has sped up, now hinging on events taking place currently.
