The most likely candidate that Ukraine would use is the OTR-21 Tochka tactical ballistic missile. The only other system that fits the profile is the Scud missile, but with the help of the United States, Ukraine got rid of its entire Scud arsenal by 2011. Tactical ballistic missiles fall in the lower tier category of short-range ballistic missiles, typically having a reach of less than 350 kilometers, while other short-range ballistic missiles can have ranges of up to 1,000 kilometers. In Soviet and Russian terminology, the Tochka is classified as an operational-tactical system.
The Tochka-U, the version of the missile Ukraine is believed to have, is a single-stage solid propellant missile with a range of up to 120 kilometers. It typically employs a warhead filled with 120 kilograms of high explosive, although it can also be equipped with an assortment of other warheads, including nuclear ones. The system is fairly mobile, with the missile carried on the back of a truck (known as a transporter erector launcher) that also fires the missile.
Despite what some media outlets have reported, the use of tactical ballistic missiles in Ukraine does not represent a significant or major escalation in the conflict. The Ukrainians rely heavily on airpower in their fight against the rebels, but high attrition rates as well as the continued threat of separatist and even Russian air defense weaponry has raised the risk substantially for Kiev's air force. This has forced Ukraine to search for a different way of striking at rebel forces, and the Tochka is a potential option because of its reach and accuracy. The Tochka is also suitable against fixed infrastructure and troop concentrations such as surface-to-air missile sites, command ports or ammunition and fuel depots.
Although the Tochka is a good way to hit rebel positions without putting Ukrainian troops at risk, it does not necessarily offer an improved capability over competently flown air strikes. For example, an Su-25 ground attack aircraft can carry a heavier payload and can loiter over its target and track it before subsequently engaging and destroying it. The aircraft is also far more responsive as it supports Ukrainian ground forces and can carry out multiple attacks in rapid succession. Though relatively accurate, the Tochka is not as reliable or as precise and is not suitable against fast moving targets. Moreover, the Ukrainians will be hesitant to employ it against targets in densely populated areas for fear of collateral damage. Finally, there are a limited number of Tochka missiles available — reportedly fewer than 100.
The Tochka missile represents a Ukrainian counter to the separatists' acquisition of a significant inventory of air defense weaponry, and its use should not be seen as a significant escalation in the conflict. The Tochka is just one more weapon reportedly being used in Ukraine's dangerous and bloody conflict.
