There is no doubt that the current outbreak of Ebola is dire. According to the World Health Organization, the current death toll has been highest in Guinea, where 460 cases have led to 339 deaths so far. In Liberia, 329 cases have left 156 dead, and in Sierra Leone, 533 cases and 233 deaths have been reported.
In the Nigerian case, which generated concern around the world, a passenger traveled from Liberia via Lome, Togo, and collapsed upon arrival in Lagos, the most populous city in Nigeria. The patient reportedly showed symptoms while on the plane. Ebola is most contagious when a carrier begins exhibiting symptoms, but contraction requires close contact with bodily fluids. Health officials in Nigeria quickly isolated the man and have since quarantined the hospital where he was treated and died. Close monitoring of nearly 60 contacts continues, and passengers on the flight retain a low level of risk.
The properties of the virus itself reduce the risk of a more widespread outbreak, especially in areas with robust healthcare systems and practices. Because transmission requires proximity with bodily fluids, Ebola is more difficult to contract than airborne viruses such as smallpox or the common cold. Ebola is also less infectious than other illnesses, including measles and influenza. In addition, the severity of the symptoms — which include fever, headache, vomiting and diarrhea — prevent the virus from going unnoticed, unlike with HIV, which has a longer incubation period.
The swift deployment of measures to contain the outbreak in Lagos probably limited the spread of the disease. Although further transmission cannot be ruled out, the risk of an outbreak in Nigeria is low. Notably, precautions were taken to prevent regional spread as well: Nigerian Arik Airlines and Togo-based Asky Airlines have suspended flights to and from Sierra Leone and Liberia. Most Liberian border crossings have been closed as well.
Major entry points and trade conduits remain open, including the airport in the Liberian capital of Monrovia, though more stringent screening procedures are in force. Because key trade routes are being kept operational, official trade should be minimally affected. Trade that uses the border crossings that are now closed may experience a decline. But given the porosity of African borders and the fact that not all crossings occur at official checkpoints, trade may yet continue.
Achieving Containment
In previous outbreaks, Ebola typically has hit rural African regions the hardest. Containing the virus has been difficult, especially in the early months of an outbreak, due to lack of understanding of the disease, cultural practices and inadequate health facilities. Though rural areas are still experiencing the highest infection rates of this outbreak, there have also been a significant number of urban cases. Family members, those attending funerals and healthcare workers are at high risk of infection.
Past outbreaks in central Africa have followed an identifiable pattern: The local death toll increased, but the disease stayed within specific, isolated and mostly rural regions until it was brought under control. This time, however, the size of the outbreak, the relative ease with which people in the region can cross borders and the growing number of urban cases are making containment more difficult.
Governments and international organizations are working with local populations to contain the disease, but it is still an uphill battle. Liberia and Sierra Leone have enacted emergency measures to quarantine infected areas and places where the disease could spread. The presidents of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia will reportedly meet Aug. 1 in the Guinean capital to come up with joint measures to stop the outbreak. Aid workers have gone to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, too, and the World Health Organization is sending teams to Nigeria and Togo to follow up on the airline passenger case. U.S. agencies have reportedly increased aid efforts to help contain the disease, and the European Union announced that it would give an additional 2 million euros ($2.7 million) to help with containment efforts.
While the virus will likely spread farther in West Africa, a large outbreak in Nigeria is unlikely. And barring more severe contagion, any broader economic impacts outside the region will be limited.
