In light of the recent advances by the Islamic State, formerly the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, Stratfor has compiled analyses detailing Saudi Arabia's difficulty with jihadist movements during its competition with Iran for regional primacy. While most observers believe the Saudis are still backing the Islamic State, the following excerpts show that Saudi Arabia cannot successfully deploy jihadists, but rather must defeat them to be able to make progress against Iran.
Saudi Arabia: Problems with Using Jihad in Syria
June 12, 2012: A senior Saudi religious scholar and member of the kingdom's supreme religious body issued a fatwa, or Islamic ruling, June 7 prohibiting Saudis from waging jihad in Syria without the government's permission. Saudi Arabia recognizes the dangers that stem from its support of an armed overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime. In particular, the Saudi government is trying to ensure that al Qaeda-type transnational jihadism does not gain ground in the region as an unintended consequence of its efforts to use Salafist-jihadist forces against the regime. However, the Saudis are unlikely to succeed in preventing such repercussions.
The Hajj in Saudi Arabia, 2013
Oct. 14, 2013: Monday marked the beginning of the hajj, the annual pilgrimage that brings roughly 2 million Muslims from around the world to the Saudi city of Mecca. Saudi Arabia has been organizing the hajj for nearly the entire life of King Abdullah, the current 89-year-old "Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques," a title given to Saudi monarchs that grants them religious legitimacy throughout the Muslim world. However, this year's hajj finds its host country facing an unprecedented geopolitical challenge as the United States, the kingdom's main security guarantor, seeks peace with Riyadh's biggest adversary: Iran. It also comes as much of the Arab and Sunni world, which Saudi Arabia claims to lead, is in general disarray.
Saudi Arabia's Complicated Pursuit of Foreign Policy Independence
Dec. 23, 2013: With the U.S.-Iranian pursuit of a rapprochement continuing and with Riyadh rife with concern about the regional implications of such a deal, Saudi Arabia is seeking to adopt a more assertive foreign policy stance independent of the United States. This tricky but essential process starts with preparing the country domestically and securing the home front.
France and Saudi Arabia Join Forces in the Levant
Dec. 30, 2013: A convergence of Saudi and French interests in the Levant is leading to a tighter alignment between the two countries. This partnership is important for both sides, but more so for Riyadh, which is trying to compensate for the loss of U.S. support regarding Saudi efforts toward regime change in Syria. From Saudi Arabia's point of view, Paris' historical relations with Syria, and its less prominent global position compared to the United States, support the Saudi pursuit of foreign policy independence and of leadership over the Arab world.
Saudi Arabia: Battling al Qaeda for Regional Primacy
Jan. 6, 2014: Saudi Arabia will have to contain al Qaeda if it wants to successfully counter Iranian regional influence. Currently, Riyadh and the transnational jihadist network are competing with one another for primacy in the sectarian struggle that erupted after the Arab Spring. Al Qaeda has the ability to hijack that struggle, and Riyadh would have difficulty preventing it.
Saudi Arabia Overhauls Its Strategy for Syria
Saudi Arabia's New Foreign Policy Meets Resistance
March 12, 2014: Within months of embarking upon a new foreign policy doctrine, Saudi Arabia has run into serious problems. The Saudis are trying to assume the leadership of the Arab world and create a regional Arab bulwark against Iran, which is on the path toward international rehabilitation, but Riyadh is facing resistance from Qatar and other Gulf Arab states. The extent to which the Iranians can exploit these tensions is limited, but so long as the Saudis are having problems, there is ample opportunity for Iran to advance its interests.
