Yet another convoy of armored vehicles was filmed rolling down a road in eastern Ukraine this week. This time, the convoy included three BMP infantry fighting vehicles and an MT-LB auxiliary armored tracked vehicle. This group of vehicles is the latest demonstration of the separatist rebels' ability to acquire significant weaponry and deploy it against Ukrainian security forces. Though the separatists claim they commandeered the equipment from the Ukrainian army, some weapons almost undoubtedly came across the border from Russia.
Ukrainian and Russian forces use much of the same military equipment, and Moscow has astutely and easily taken advantage of that fact, transferring to the separatist rebels equipment that is also used by Ukrainian security forces. This makes evidence of weapons transfers hard to verify, and it has allowed the Kremlin to maintain plausible deniability of its direct involvement.
Yet it is extremely unlikely that the separatists would have been able to independently capture such a large quantity of equipment, make it functional and operational and sustain its use logistically. On June 30, NATO Supreme Allied Commander for Europe Gen. Philip Breedlove said NATO believes Russia is bolstering the rebels, facilitating the movement of equipment and finances across the border and even maintaining Russian irregular forces in eastern Ukraine.
The transfer of funds and equipment, and the presence of a small number of Russian special operations forces and intelligence officers, has a marked effect on the conflict. The delivery of main battle tanks, armored fighting vehicles and multiple rocket artillery gives the rebels a significant punch. Even if the equipment is delivered piecemeal, it provides mobile firepower, giving rebels access to systems on par with those being used against them. However, smaller weapons, such as anti-tank guided munitions and man-portable air-defense systems, placed in the hands of well-commanded, fast-moving separatists using guerrilla tactics, arguably pose a greater threat to the conventional Ukrainian forces.
After Ukraine's army aviation used helicopter gunships effectively during the late-May battle for Donetsk airport, Stratfor pointed out the likelihood that Russia would transfer increased amounts of air defense weaponry to the separatists. Since then, the Russian-backed rebels have utilized dozens of man-portable air-defense systems against Ukrainian security forces, bringing down or damaging a large number of airplanes and helicopters.
The cross-border flow of weapons and equipment has put pressure on Ukraine's security forces to attempt to secure the border. Ukraine has carried out military operations to seize important border checkpoints, and Kiev has even suggested to Moscow that the two sides cooperate to secure the border.
But Russia and the separatists have no intention of allowing Ukrainian security forces to control the border. A number of Ukrainian national guard and army units guarding the long border with Russia have already been isolated and destroyed. Furthermore, any Ukrainian attempt to deploy additional forces along the border places them deep behind enemy lines and at risk of being cut off from supplies and reinforcements. Even if Ukrainian forces were deployed and sustained there, they cannot possibly cover the entire length of the vast and porous border, and supplies and equipment will inevitably make it through to the rebels.
Given the vast spaces and limited forces involved, it will be exceedingly difficult for the Ukrainian forces to adequately secure the border without active Russian cooperation. With Russian aid flowing to the separatists and the Ukrainians unable to secure the border, any end to the conflict will have to be resolved politically rather than militarily. This means Ukraine may have to show a willingness to make concessions on Russia's primary demands to decentralize power, therefore neutralizing Kiev.
