With its renewed anti-separatist operation in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, Ukraine aims to regain control of towns, villages and infrastructure and ultimately to eliminate the armed separatist movement in the region. The military strategy has been to contain and isolate separatist strongholds. Ukraine's forces have also worked to regain control over border checkpoints in an effort to cut off separatist supply lines.
There are reportedly between 10,000 and 20,000 Ukrainian personnel in the eastern regions, made up of military troops, Interior Ministry troops, intelligence units and members of the recently established national guard. Separatist groups operating in the area reportedly include several hundred highly trained members, as well as a few thousand local supporters. There are currently two avenues of advance. Some Ukrainian forces are moving eastward from the Dnipropetrovsk region toward the city of Donetsk, while other Ukrainian forces are moving from the north toward the city of Luhansk, trying to shift southward along the border with Russia in an effort to retake control of checkpoints and disrupt separatist supply networks.
At the same time, Ukrainian troops are amassing to surround Slovyansk and neighboring Kramatorsk, where they are conducting airstrikes and firing artillery against identified rebel targets. Using intelligence provided by Western partners, Ukraine has also carried out strikes against static targets where Russian-supplied armor and artillery have been identified. The advance of Ukrainian forces has been slow, however, and marked by frequent low-level clashes with separatist groups.
Constraints and Challenges
The government in Kiev has so far refrained from directly targeting any potential civilian targets or entering heavily populated urban areas. Although Ukrainian forces have the capacity to enter cities such as Slovyansk, they have shied away from doing so, concerned about incurring large-scale civilian casualties and inadvertently turning local populations into supporters of the separatist cause. Additionally, Ukraine's military is already experiencing serious morale problems among its troops and is seeking to limit military casualties and loss of materiel.
The preferred strategy is one that prioritizes first isolating separatist strongholds, avoiding direct confrontation with the most well-trained, well-armed separatist groups in urban areas. As well as having time to fortify their positions, some of the separatists also have access to quality man-portable weapons such as anti-tank guided missiles and shoulder-launched anti-air systems. The Ukrainian military has proved to be risk-averse in the face of a dedicated adversary, which has resulted in self-imposed limits on the intensity, pace and scope of operations in the east.
Ukrainian forces also face technological constraints. While Kiev has access to intelligence from Western sources, Ukraine's military aircraft have a limited ability to carry out precision strikes and thus must resort to targeting fixed positions in conjunction with ground operations. Ukrainian military aircraft also remain highly vulnerable to mobile ground-based air defense. On July 1, separatists in the Donetsk region fired four man-portable air defense missiles at a Ukrainian Su-24 attack aircraft, the latest in a series of attacks on Ukrainian combat aviation, mostly concentrated in (though not limited to) the Slovyansk area. The Su-24 managed to remain in the air despite being damaged, but the separatists have succeeded in shooting down Ukrainian air assets before.
Although Russia has vocally opposed Kiev's actions in eastern Ukraine, Moscow has publicly stayed out of the fight. Behind the scenes, however, the Kremlin continues to constrain the Ukrainian government's ability to defeat the separatist movement. Despite intensified efforts to take control of border checkpoints, large portions of Ukraine's border, from the Mariupol area in the south to the Luhansk region, remain unsecured. Shootings and ambushes in these porous outlands continue, as does the unchecked flow of weapons, equipment and reinforcements from Russia into eastern Ukraine.
As long as the Kremlin supports the movement of fighters and materiel, Kiev will be unable to fully regain control of the eastern regions. Ukrainian forces will make progress in securing some parts of the border and isolating separatist strongholds, but entering urban areas such as Donetsk and Luhansk will be costly. The armed separatist movement will only be eliminated when the Kremlin decides the separatists are no longer needed as a lever against the government in Kiev. For Russia, the neutralization and decentralization of Ukraine remains a priority. Moscow's decision-making in regard to its support of separatists in eastern Ukraine will therefore be tied to the Kiev government's willingness to compromise.
