Anticipated fissures between other Iraqi Sunni factions and the Islamic State, formerly known as Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, are already becoming apparent. A number of Sunni tribal factions have reportedly assisted the Iraqi army in Tikrit after initially remaining neutral. This change of stance is due to Islamic State's draconian interference in their affairs. This has been one of the main weaknesses of the militant group, whose policies provoke local discontent and erode their support base. Over time, this could lead to the main Sunni support base in Iraq completely turning on Islamic State.
The Iraqi air force, meanwhile, is rushing to bring new aircraft into service. To do so it is turning to countries that can facilitate quick deliveries. The delivery of the first few Su-25 airplanes from Russia has been confirmed, and Iraq is reportedly also in talks with Belarus, the Czech Republic and Iran for more aircraft. Baghdad is reportedly asking Tehran for the return of Iraqi air force aircraft brought there by fleeing pilots during the First Gulf War.
Russian An-124 strategic airlift aircraft delivered the quickly refurbished Su-25s to Taji air base near Baghdad on June 28. Russian technicians arrived along with the delivery and will help maintain the aircraft until Iraqi ground support personnel can be trained in Russia. Baghdad says that it has also called up pilots that flew Su-25s under the Saddam Hussein regime. Iraqi forces could alternatively rely on Russian or even Iranian pilots, which also fly Su-25s in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Iraq's air force continues to rely on U.S. equipment to combat Sunni rebels and recently received another batch of 75 Hellfire missiles to replenish depleted stocks. The Iraqi government has, however, expressed frustration with the United States. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said that the United States deluded the Iraqi government when it signed arms contracts. This stems from the amount of time it will take to deliver F-16 aircraft to Iraq, which the United States says is standard for newly built aircraft. The timeline will be further extended because U.S. contractors preparing infrastructure for the F-16s had to withdraw from Balad air base during the current turmoil.
The Su-25 is a specialized close air support aircraft. If the Iraqis were able to bring them quickly into service, they could use them to interdict massed Islamic State and Sunni rebel convoys if flown well and directed at targets properly. Footage of a large Islamic State convoy over the weekend of June 28-29 near Mosul showed hundreds of vehicles, armored cars and trucks towing captured U.S.-made M198 howitzers. Such a compact concentration of militant forces in a single location would have been virtually impossible when U.S. airpower ruled the skies over Iraq. New Su-25s could once again complicate militant moves.
The lack of a serious aerial threat has allowed Sunni militants to use lightning raids in quickly assembled convoys of pickup trucks equipped with medium- or heavy-weapons systems, known as technicals. This is a widely used tactic in the region, deployed, for example, by Polisario Front rebels against the Moroccan army during the Western Sahara War and later by militants in Mali. On the rare occasions when Iraqi aircraft have been able to intervene against these convoys, they have inflicted significant casualties. The air force, however, has only a small number of combat aircraft and helicopters, and lacks the necessary surveillance, reconnaissance and intelligence assets to replicate this on a larger scale. The current unmanned aerial vehicles and fixed-wing sorties performed daily by U.S. assets in conjunction with the joint headquarters in Baghdad staffed by U.S. military advisers will bolster this capability.
The Iraqi forces continue to work to press their advantage by bringing in fresh recruits, purchasing aircraft and enlisting foreign support from a range of nations. The initial fissures between Islamic State and some of the base Sunni support could also seriously boost Baghdad's potential success on the battlefield if they continue to expand. Even as the Iraqi central government gradually takes back the strategic momentum in the conflict, it will have a very difficult time taking back lost territory against an emboldened and experienced force flush with newly captured weaponry.
