The just-concluded separatist referendums and upcoming national elections in Ukraine will be a crucial test of not just the country's political orientation and stability going forward, but for whether it is able to function as a country at all.
On Sunday, the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk held referendums on whether to establish "self-rule" within their territories. According to the poll organizers, the referendums produced overwhelming support in favor of breaking away from Ukraine. In Donetsk, 89 percent supported the vote, while in Luhansk, 96 percent voted for sovereignty, according to the Donetsk People's Republic Election Commission and Luhansk People's Republic Election Commission, respectively. Organizers also claimed that more than 80 percent of eligible voters participated in the elections, though there has been no independent verification of the voting or turnout.
The Ukrainian government has opposed these referendums from the outset and unsurprisingly considers them illegal and illegitimate. Acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov called the referendums a "farce," adding that they "will not have any legal consequences except for the prosecution of its organizers." The West has also spoken against the referendums, with officials from both the European Union and United States saying they would not recognize their results.
Ukraine is less worried about the referendums themselves — even the organizers admit to seeing irregularities, such as the inability to prevent people from voting more than once — than the implications of the vote vis-a-vis Russian intentions. Fresh in Kiev's mind is the rapid sequence of events in Crimea, which began with pro-Russian protests that turned into armed separatist takeovers of buildings and led to a referendum for independence and Russia's annexation of the peninsula. The eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk have followed a similar pattern, and shortly after the vote, representatives from the Donetsk People's Republic called on Moscow to accept the region into the Russian Federation (with separatists from Luhansk likely to follow suit).
There are still major distinctions between Crimea and eastern Ukraine — not least of which was the existing presence of the Russian military in several bases throughout the peninsula — but the Ukrainian government cannot preclude the possibility of another Russian military intervention into the country. Reports of Russian forces close to the Ukrainian border, some of them dressed in peacekeeping uniforms, have driven concerns in Kiev and the West that Russia could cross the border under the pretext of a peacekeeping mission but in reality as a means to occupy or annex parts of eastern Ukraine.
But as Stratfor has maintained, Russia's ultimate goal is not the invasion or annexation of Ukrainian territory; rather, its goal is the neutralization of the Ukrainian government. And in this context, the May 25 presidential election, the first such vote since the overthrow of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich in February, is key. Just as the Ukrainian government and the West have questioned the legality of the referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk, Russian officials have done the same over the presidential election in Ukraine. Moscow's position is that the overthrow of Yanukovich was an illegal Western-backed coup and that the current government in Kiev is therefore illegitimate.
Russian President Vladimir Putin did recently suggest a softening of Moscow's position on the elections, saying they could be "a step in the right direction," but only if they are preceded by a halt of Ukraine's security operations in eastern regions and constitutional reform toward decentralization. Putin also called on the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk to postpone their referendums, though these groups decided to go through with their votes anyway.
On the face of it, the way these groups disregarded Putin's suggestion would seem to suggest that Russia is not in control of the separatists in eastern Ukraine. However, this could have been a deliberate attempt by Putin to appear pragmatic in negotiations with Kiev and the West and to distance Moscow from the more provocative actions of the separatists. And while it is certainly reasonable to believe that Russia does not dictate every single action taken by the separatist groups, which vary in size and effectiveness throughout Donetsk and Luhansk, it would be naive to think that Moscow has completely lost its sway.
Though its difficult to say exactly how much influence Moscow has with these groups, there are indications that Russia does have significant links with the most well-armed separatists who have seized and continue to occupy buildings throughout the region, especially in the militant stronghold of Slovyansk. So long as Russia has influence over the muscle and main decision-makers behind the separatists, it can claim plausible deniability while the self-proclaimed leaders make statements contradicting Moscow or even themselves. Add to that Russia's response to the referendums — stating it "respects" the vote but not specifically endorsing or recognizing it — and it is clear there is an alignment of forces there, at least where mutual interests are concerned.
Therefore, in Putin's thinking, the referendums likely served a useful purpose of reminding the Ukrainian government of its inability to control the territories in which they were held — regardless of whether Moscow officially supported it or not. As long as Ukraine continues with its security operations in the east and doesn't make serious efforts at decentralization, Russia will continue to foster instability in eastern Ukraine and undermine the government, possibly even disrupting the presidential vote in these regions as well.
Ultimately, Russia's main strategic aim continues to be neutralizing Ukraine and preventing its integration with the West. There are multiple ways that Moscow can go about pursuing this goal, whether supporting a dialogue on decentralization or supporting separatism while maintaining the threat of military intervention. The lead-up to the presidential elections will likely see both.
