By instigating armed takeovers of buildings throughout eastern Ukraine, Russia is reminding Kiev of its significant leverage ahead of negotiations April 17 in Geneva. Over the weekend, unidentified protesters stormed and occupied government buildings and police stations across eastern Ukraine. They now control buildings in at least six towns, including Donetsk, Kharkiv and the port city of Mariupol. Western governments, including the United States, have blamed Russia for the occupations, citing the coordinated manner of the occupations across several cities and the gunmen's professional gear.
There has been some violence related to the protests, most of it concentrated in the industrial Donetsk region. In the town of Slovyansk, masked gunmen exchanged fire with Ukrainian security forces, leading to casualties on both sides, and set up checkpoints on roads leading to the town. Despite an early attempt to prevent the occupation of buildings and remove protesters, as well as warnings from acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov that a full security operation would take place on the morning of April 14, Ukrainian authorities have so far proved unwilling to implement a large-scale crackdown on Russian-backed gunmen and pro-Russian civilians.
The occupation of government buildings across eastern Ukraine demonstrates Russia's ability to destabilize Ukraine through non-military means and thus gives the Kremlin leverage in its negotiations with Ukraine and the United States. Pointing to alleged violations of the rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine, the Kremlin has been pressuring Kiev to move toward federalization. Echoing Moscow's stance, the protesters in eastern Ukraine have demanded a referendum on federalization and called for the release of pro-Russian protesters who were arrested during previous demonstrations.
In advance of this week's talks in Geneva, which will involve foreign ministers from the United States, Russia, Ukraine and the European Union, Ukraine's interim government may be moving closer to a compromise with the Kremlin on eastern Ukraine after its open confrontation with pro-Russian forces over the weekend. On April 14, Ukrainian authorities failed to follow through on pledges to crack down on militants and protesters in the east, while Turchynov said he is not opposed to a nationwide referendum on federalization, which may take place in conjunction with the presidential election on May 25.
Faced with potential disruptions to its natural gas supplies and an increasingly unstable security situation in its eastern cities, the government in Kiev is looking to its Western allies for support. The European Union has formally approved a $1 billion aid package to Ukraine, and another $6 billion could be released soon in a combined International Monetary Fund and European Union aid package. In the meantime, EU foreign ministers are meeting to discuss further sanctions in response to Russian involvement in the weekend's violent events, but more sanctions on high-ranking Russian leaders will have little effect on the Kremlin's decision-making and will not improve Ukraine's negotiating position with Russia. While the United States and European Union have demonstrated their willingness to provide Ukraine with some financial assistance, Ukraine's Western allies are unlikely to be able to help the country secure affordable energy imports and quell tensions in the east without the Kremlin's cooperation.
