The first thing the Free Syrian Army had to demonstrate in order to secure significant foreign aid is that it remains a viable force that can not only fight the regime, but also challenge the growing jihadist presence in Syria. In December 2013, 14 Free Syrian Army units operating predominantly in northern Syria united under the command of Jamal Maarouf (former head of the Syria Martyrs' Brigade) to form the Syrian Revolutionaries Front. This group almost immediately proceeded to play a critical role in the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant by launching a coordinated (and ongoing) offensive against the jihadist group's positions in Aleppo and Idlib on Jan. 3.
The Free Syrian Army also had to demonstrate that it is a viable partner for the United States and is willing to toe a practical line in negotiations with the regime. To that end, commander of the Southern Front, Bashar al-Zoubi, personally attended the talks in Geneva. Alongside the Syrian Revolutionaries Front, al-Zoubi's Southern Front is the second pillar of the reorganized Free Syrian Army and focuses primarily on operations in Daraa, Quneitra and the southern approaches to Damascus.
By attacking jihadist forces in Syria and cooperating in the Geneva process, the Free Syrian Army has managed to assuage some of the United States' more pressing fears that, by supporting the moderate rebel forces, Washington will also indirectly bolster jihadists and Salafists. Indeed, there has been speculation that the United States may have also pressed the Syrian Revolutionaries Front to challenge the Islamic Front, but given the massive challenges already facing the Free Syrian Army the notion was dropped quickly, and the Syrian Revolutionaries are maintaining a working, if tense, relationship with the Islamic Front.
The Free Syrian Army's Internal Changes
The Free Syrian Army is also overhauling its command structure. Gen. Salim Idris, head of the Supreme Military Council that nominally oversees the coalition of moderate rebel forces known as the Free Syrian Army, is facing an internal coup. Members of his own Supreme Military Council reportedly voted him out of office during a meeting in Turkey. The forced change in leadership threatens to exacerbate tensions within the Free Syrian Army, as some key rebel leaders such as Lt. Col. Mohammad al-Abboud have already called it a coup. However, anger at the Supreme Military Council is already high because of the wide perception among the rank and file that it has failed to deliver on its promises of support, so a change in leadership would be necessary if the leadership is to remain aligned with the fighters in Syria it ostensibly commands.
To reflect the growing alignment with the units fighting within Syria, the newly appointed commander is Abdul-Illah al-Bashir, a heretofore relatively minor field commander fighting in southern Syria who did not even attend the vote. Though al-Bashir may assume the now largely symbolic mantle of leadership of the Supreme Military Council, it is becoming clear that the real drivers behind the moderate Syrian rebel forces are al-Zoubi and Maarouf. Indeed, the Supreme Military Council is set to lose a great deal of stature as the United States, which previously insisted that any aid would have to be channeled through the council, is now indicating that support will go directly to moderate rebel units in the field as part of the revitalized aid effort. In practice, this will entail dealing directly with Maarouf's Syrian Revolutionaries Front and al-Zoubi's Southern Front.
The Role of Foreign Support
The logistics of the new aid will entail a primary effort to bolster al-Zoubi's Southern Front with a more careful effort to sustain Maarouf's forces. This strategy is informed by the minimal jihadist presence in southern Syria and the fact that U.S. and international forces have long been vetting and indeed training southern rebel forces out of bases in Jordan. As for what the aid will include, recent reports have pointed toward an influx of man-portable air defense systems, anti-tank guided missiles, as well as small arms and ammunition. The Gulf Cooperation Council, in coordination with the United States, will supply the bulk of these systems, while Washington (which still has misgivings, especially regarding the delivery of man-portable air defense systems) reportedly will hand over millions of dollars in financial aid for fighter's salaries.
This influx of foreign support gives the Free Syrian Army a new chance at re-creating itself. However, it still faces incredibly difficult challenges. Not only will the moderate rebel forces have to continue to battle both Bashar al Assad's regime and jihadist forces, they will also have to contend with an increasingly suspicious Islamic Front that views any dealings with the United States with distaste. There is also no guarantee that the new aid will persist unhindered, as illustrated by previous cuts in support mainly due to concerns over the weapons falling into jihadist hands. The United States will also be careful not to push Iran too far in its backing of rebel forces while it prioritizes ongoing negotiations with Tehran concerning its nuclear program. The Free Syrian Army may have received a new lifeline, but its path forward remains replete with dangers and pitfalls.
