The most recent explosion in Antananarivo, which occurred Sept. 16, appears to have killed the bombmaker during the construction of an improvised explosive device. Other explosions in Antananarivo involved devices made of identical materials and occurred in areas frequented by foreigners. On Sept. 5, for example, two such devices were planted along the city's central avenue, outside the Tana Plaza Hotel and the Institut Francais. The device at the Institut Francais was discovered and defused, while the device outside the hotel exploded but failed to cause considerable damage or any casualties. A previously unknown group calling itself Defenders of National Sovereignty claimed responsibility for the attacks and demanded an end to foreign involvement in the upcoming presidential election. On Sept. 6, another device exploded outside the Bank of Africa branch across the street from the Tana Plaza Hotel, but again caused no casualties or serious damage.
The Sept. 16 incident led to local law enforcement's discovery of a bomb factory in the Ambondrona area of Antananarivo. The materials used in the construction of the device that exploded in the bombmaker's hands were found to be identical to those used in the device recovered at the Institut Francais and in the devices that exploded at the Tana Plaza Hotel and the Bank of Africa. The workshop also held more bombmaking materials and rifles, hand grenades, and clubs, edged weapons and the like.
Although the Defenders of National Sovereignty were previously unheard of, the group's methods are similar to those used in a series of bombings that occurred in Madagascar in 2009 and 2010, following the ouster of Ravalomanana by Rajoelina, who was supported by factions of the military. At that time, Ravalomanana supporters carried out bombings in an attempt to destabilize Rajoelina's new government. The Malagasy electoral authorities' recent decision to reject the candidacies of Rajoelina, Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka — all of whom have been involved in military coups that settled the last two elections in Madagascar — could have restarted activity by a group of Ravalomanana supporters who were responsible for the 2009-2010 bombing campaigns and are still at large.
The decision to keep these figures from running for office again came as a response to mediation efforts by the Southern African Development Community and to France’s threats that it would not recognize election results if the three candidates were allowed to stand. France, Madagascar’s former colonial ruler, played a part — albeit mostly consultative — in the transfer of the presidential office from Ratsiraka to Ravalomanana in 2002. While Ravalomanana claimed to have won that year's election in the first round, official results put him only at 46 percent as opposed to the required 50 percent, and he and Ratsiraka fought for control of the country until Ratsiraka eventually fled to France. In 2009, Rajoelina — then mayor of Antananarivo — instigated protests amid fighting among factions of the country's military, which finally caused Ravalomanana to flee to South Africa. The military faction that overthrew Ravalomanana subsequently appointed Rajoelina as president.
The French and Southern African Development Community position that Rajoelina, Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka should not be allowed to run for the presidency again is based on a belief that the removal of these key figures from the Malagasy political theater would also remove the violent and disruptive means by which they previously tried to control the presidency. However, this violence is not purely rooted in these specific personalities, and even without their candidacies the three men have wide support bases in the country and can continue influencing politics. Ravalomanana has already attempted to have his wife, Lalao Ravalomanana, run for the presidency, but election authorities also rejected her candidacy. Ravalomanana himself has tried repeatedly to return to Madagascar from exile in South Africa but has been blocked on all attempts.
The supporters of Ravalomanana, Rajoelina and Ratsiraka will continue dominating Malagasy politics, even if the three cannot directly run for office. In fact, barring them from candidacy could result in a backlash as their supporters respond with violence. The current campaign of improvised explosive devices could be seen in that context, as a result of Ravalomanana’s inability to run for office again now that Rajoelina’s interim presidency is coming to its end.
