The Turkish Airlines pilots were kidnapped at gunpoint early Aug. 10 as they were heading from the Rafik Hariri International Airport to their hotel in Beirut. A previously unknown group calling itself Zuwwar al Imam Ali al Reda (which translates to "the visitors of the shrine of Imam Ali al Reda") claimed responsibility for the kidnapping hours after the pilots were abducted and issued a statement calling for the release of nine remaining Lebanese Shiites who were taken hostage by Sunni Syrian rebels in a small town near the Syrian-Turkish border northwest of Aleppo in May 2012. The Syrian rebels holding the Shiite captives claim that the hostages are members of Hezbollah and said they would release them if Hezbollah withdrew its support for the Syrian regime. The Turkish captives are reportedly being held in Lebanon's northern Bekaa Valley.
According to the kidnappers' logic, the abduction of Turkish citizens would elevate the issue in Syria by drawing the Turkish government into the conflict so that Turkey could then use its presumed influence over the Syrian rebels to secure their release. But there are also several aspects to this operation that suggest Hezbollah's likely involvement and a broader agenda by Iran.
The kidnapping took place near the airport, where Hezbollah controls communications networks and the main airport road. According to a Stratfor contact in the area, the Sunni-dominated information sector of the Lebanese internal security forces — an agency pitted against Hezbollah in Lebanon's security apparatus — informed Turkish intelligence officers, who arrived at the scene of the abduction, that the bus driver taking the pilots from the airport to the hotel had been tracking the pilots' movements. Apparently, he had coordinated with the Beirut ground controller to find out when their Turkish Airlines plane would land.
The kidnapping took place less than 50 kilometers (about 31 miles) from an army patrol unit, which allegedly saw the kidnappers' vehicles but failed to intervene. Hezbollah has many sympathizers within the army and could have relied on them to not interfere in the operation. That the captives are reportedly being held separately in the northern Bekaa Valley, a Hezbollah stronghold in Lebanon, points to another sign of Hezbollah's likely involvement.
Hezbollah's patrons in Iran were quick to condemn the kidnapping and just as quick to publicize that Turkey's leadership is reaching out to Iran for help on releasing the hostages. Iran cannot avoid competition from Turkey in Syria and Iraq, but it can see that Turkey's vulnerabilities in the region are rising and thus are constraining its actions. This is most apparent in Syria, where Turkey's support for Sunni rebel groups has had the unintended consequence of creating an autonomous Syrian Kurdish zone and dramatically increasing the number of jihadists in the region.
Iran will try to exploit these security vulnerabilities by making it apparent to Ankara that Tehran has the influence either to escalate or dial down threats against Turkey that are emanating from the Levant region. The abduction of the two Turkish pilots comes at a particularly sensitive time for Turkey, with the ruling party facing widespread criticism over what has been perceived by the party's critics as a shortsighted and reckless foreign policy on Syria that is only increasing Turkey's insecurity at home and in the region. If Iran can use this negotiation over the pilots to foster a more comprehensive accommodation with Turkey, this could reduce the level of Turkish involvement in the Syrian crisis and provide relief to Iran's sectarian allies while also improving Iran's bargaining position with the United States.
Iran will face limits in this strategy, however. Turkey is already deeply involved in backing Sunni rebel factions, and it will have to rely on those relationships to contain Kurdish separatism in northwest Syria. Even if Turkey bargains with Iran, Turkey also cannot be assured that the Iranian and Syrian regimes have the ability to neutralize the array of militant threats that Ankara is facing. Turkey's willingness to negotiate with Iran over the hostages may yield some tactical cooperation on issues ranging from intelligence sharing to aiding Iranian sanctions-busting, but are unlikely to go beyond that point.
