Navalny is one of the last prominent opposition figures left trying to rally the anti-Kremlin sentiment left in Russia after the 2011-2012 protests. Other opposition organizers have either stepped back under Kremlin pressure or have been sidelined due to legal complications. Navalny's conviction for embezzlement marks the first politically motivated trial that did not have popular support in Russia in recent years. In the latest Levada poll, 57 percent of Muscovites and 44 percent of Russians believe that the Kremlin fabricated the charges against Navalny. Minor protests have already popped up in Kirov, and rallies are being planned in Moscow to protest his conviction.
Navalny's conviction was expected, though his withdrawal from the race for Moscow's mayor — a key position in the Russian hierarchy — was not. Now both the Kremlin's and the opposition's next moves are uncertain.
In the past week, there was a surprising change in the Kremlin elite's opinion on Navalny's candidacy for mayor. Deputy Prime Minister Vyacheslav Volodin supported Navalny's bid against the Kremlin's choice of Sergei Sobyanin. Volodin, who is currently the Kremlin's social policy designer, and others saw an opportunity to have Sobyanin challenged in the election by a candidate who the Kremlin could send to jail at any point. This way, a win for Sobyanin would be more legitimate, and the anti-Kremlin protest movement would not have much reason to protest. Over the past two days, Russian media have speculated that Navalny's sentence could have been temporarily suspended so he could at least run in the September election.
However, it seems that Navalny is not interested in playing to the government's plans and has pulled out of the race. This leaves the Kremlin without any real candidate to challenge Sobyanin, since the other four candidates are polling under 2 percent. The Kremlin could simply let the election move forward with Sobyanin's victory a given, or it could prop up another candidate. Neither scenario would likely appease the anti-Kremlin movement.
With Navalny out of the running, the protest movement is facing the larger problem of finding a centralizing figure. Navalny was able to unify various elements within the opposition and protest movements because he is anti-corruption as well as anti-Kremlin. If Navalny had stayed in the election despite his conviction, it would have been the anti-Kremlin movement's first organized effort in Russian politics. Now, with no candidate in the race and no unifying figure, the opposition movement may fragment further and lose the motivation to organize against the Kremlin.
These setbacks for the anti-Kremlin movement also present difficulties for the United States, which has made a concerted effort to support these movements over the past three years. Russia has accused the United States of funding many of the groups, including Navalny's campaign for Moscow mayor. Now, with several groups dismantled, it is unclear which movements the United States can support in order to keep pressure on the Kremlin.
