After a brief lull, Egyptians are returning to demonstrate in the streets. The Tamarrod movement had called for a nationwide strike if Morsi had not resigned by 5 p.m., which has already passed. The movement has called for protests across the nation, specifically in Cairo at the Ittihadeya and al-Qobba presidential palaces, the Cabinet building, the Shura Council building and the now-iconic Tahrir Square. Meanwhile, pro-Morsi forces are rallying at El-Hossari Mosque, El-Nahda Square outside Cairo University and the Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque, which has become a sort of headquarters for pro-Morsi demonstrators.
Pressure has continued to build against Morsi since the military issued its ultimatum. Six ministers have reportedly resigned since June 30, including Foreign Minister Kamel Amr. On July 2, the Egyptian judiciary, which has constantly clashed with Morsi since he was elected, upheld its ruling removing Morsi's appointed prosecutor general and ordering the reinstatement of the office's predecessor, Abdel Meguid Mahmoud, whom Morsi had removed, itself effectively an expression of solidarity with the anti-Morsi sentiment.
Meanwhile, pressure is also coming from outside the country. U.S. officials reportedly told CNN that the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama has urged Morsi to call presidential elections and warned the Egyptian military that a coup could result in consequences for U.S.-Egyptian relations, including a potential suspension of the $1.5 billion in aid the United States provides Egypt. The State Department has since denied that the United States issued any such threat, but the mere fact that is being talked about is notable.
A Rapid Descent
Morsi's popularity has fallen dramatically since he took office a year ago, both among the secular opposition who saw him as the lesser of two evils in the June 2012 elections that brought him to power, and among hard-line Islamist groups like the influential al-Nour party. Al-Nour has said it supports the military's actions and recommended that early elections be called, that a technocratic government be installed in the interim and that a committee be established for considering new constitutional amendments — an attempt to bridge the gap between the secular opposition protesters who want to upend the entire system and the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, which has such a deep sense of ownership over the current constitution.
But while the pressure on Morsi has grown, it is important to remember that both he and the Muslim Brotherhood are not without leverage of their own. The Muslim Brotherhood remains a potent political force in the country. It is unclear how many people the Muslim Brotherhood will be able to organize in protests and demonstrations in the coming hours, but even so the group has been able to put tens of thousands of supporters into the streets thus far. The number of protesters it can deploy could help determine the party's leverage in backroom political negotiations, but the fact that the Brotherhood retains influence is not in question. According to Al Ahram, Morsi met with both Prime Minister Hisham Qandil and Defense Minister Abdel el-Sisi on July 2 to discuss the political developments, during which this kind of political bargaining is likely took place.
The military and the opposition continue to demand that Morsi leave office at some point — this has been the protesters' most salient demand since the outset, and ultimately the military does not care who occupies the presidency. But the military has been very clear that it has no desire to launch a coup to forcibly remove Morsi and that it does not want to be involved in the daily governance of the Egyptian state. The military itself has little flexibility in how it proceeds; it wants to be seen responding to the protesters in a way that will restore calm and stability, but it also does not want to remove Morsi in a way that would ignite widespread Islamist violence.
The military also has its own interests at stake. It does not want to see the entire constitution and "progress" of the past two years erased, but it does want to preserve its own political and economic interests, which would not be helped by starting over again. But if the leaks of its drafted roadmap are any indication, it may have no choice but to suspend the constitution and rebuild some of the system from scratch to maintain its image of legitimacy.
The Military and Opposition Look Ahead
In the meantime, Tamarrod is trying to keep the pressure up. The real significance of Tamarrod has been its ability to unite Egypt's opposition factions under one larger umbrella. The group has founded its own political movement, the June 30 Front, and its announcement that it had chosen former presidential candidate Mohamed ElBaradei as its representative shows that the group is willing to put aside factional differences to unite around a common goal. The opposition has learned that it cannot challenge the Muslim Brotherhood or the military if it does not work together against them, and it will be important to watch in the coming hours whether this grassroots movement can maintain its sense of legitimacy and cohesion.
For its part, the military is preparing for any outcome. As the military readies itself for the upcoming deadline, central security forces and soldiers have begun preparing to intervene should clashes between pro- and anti-Morsi demonstrators get out of hand, MENA news agency reported. For now, the military's ultimatum may hold these forces back from clashing, but in any case the focus now turns to how large the protests will get tonight and whether the Muslim Brotherhood can generate enough popular momentum to forestall its ouster. In the meantime, the military will watch to see if its leaked plans appear to satisfy enough of the Egyptian population to enact if and when the deadline is reached July 3.
